中国2024~2035年钾盐供需形势分析:基于矿床地质特征研究  

Analysis of potash supply and demand in China from 2024 to 2035:Based on the study of geological characteristics of mineral deposits

作　　者：潘昭帅 张照志 吴晴[4] PAN Zhaoshuai;ZHANG Zhaozhi;WU Qing(Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research(CEEP),Beijing Institute of Technology(BIT),Beijing 100081,China;Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.,Ltd.,Golmud,Qinghai 816000,China;Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China;Chengdu Institute of Science and Technology,China Railway Group Limited,Chengdu,Sichuan 610000,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081 [2]青海盐湖工业股份有限公司,青海格尔木816000 [3]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,北京100037 [4]中铁成都科学技术研究院有限公司,四川成都610000

出　　处：《地质学报》2024年第10期2989-3001,共13页Acta Geologica Sinica

基　　金：青海盐湖工业股份有限公司科研项目(编号HE2221)资助的成果。

摘　　要：粮食安全是国家安全的重要基础,而钾肥作为三大肥料之一,被誉为粮食的“粮食”。钾盐,作为生产钾肥的重要原料,对保障国家粮食安全至关重要。中国作为全球最大的钾盐消费国,面临国内钾盐查明保有资源储量不足和资源禀赋较差等挑战,持续增长的需求使得钾盐的对外依存度常年超过40%。因此,在国际局势复杂多变的背景下,如何保障中国钾盐资源供应安全,成为亟待解决的问题。本文综合分析了中国钾盐矿床类型、地质特征、资源储量、生产供应和消费现状,并利用“S”形模型和ARIMA模型预测了钾盐供需趋势,进而提出相关对策建议。研究表明:①中国钾盐资源主要赋存于第四纪盐湖卤水型钾盐矿床,其中98%的保有储量集中在青海和新疆等省区。国内钾盐储量品位较低,共伴生矿产较多。②我国钾盐资源开发利用主要集中在盐湖卤水型矿床。钾肥生产的链条较长,受地质条件、资源禀赋、气候和工程技术等诸多因素的影响,导致我国钾盐供应量的增长空间和潜力有限。预计2024~2035年,我国钾盐年产量(K_(2)O)在500~600万t。③2024~2035年,以高需求为特征的中国钾盐消费将长期存在。根据预测结果,2024~2035年,中国钾盐需求量将呈现先增后降的趋势,2025年达到峰值1350万t,2035年则降至1020万t;④尽管中国钾盐的对外依存度从2002年的90%降至2023年的49%,但未来每年的供需缺口仍将超过400万t。预计2024~2035年,中国钾盐对外依存度将维持在50%左右,供需缺口长期存在。因此,提出加强钾盐地质勘查,实现找矿突破,强化科技创新,提高资源利用率,充分利用国际市场钾盐资源,支持企业获取境外钾盐资源权益等建议。本文获得的认识结论、对策建议对我国编制钾盐资源战略规划,支撑国家钾盐资源决策等具有一定的参考价值。Food security is a fundamental aspect of national security.Potash fertilizer,one of the three major fertilizers,is often referred to as the“food of food.”Potash,as a primary raw material for producing potash fertilizer,is essential for ensuring national food security.China,the worlds largest potash consumer,faces challenges such as limited reserves and poor resource endowment.The growing demand for potash has resulted in an external dependency exceeding 40%for many years.Therefore,in the context of a complex and volatile international landscape,ensuring the secure supply of potash resources has become an urgent issue that need to be addressed.This paper comprehensively analyzes the deposit types,geological characteristics,resource reserves,current production,and consumption status of Chinas potash resources.It utilizes the S-curve model,and the ARIMA model to forecast potash supply and demand trends,and proposes some policy recommendations.The study reveals that:①Chinas potash resources are primarily found in Quaternary salt lake type potash deposit,with 98%of the retained reserves concentrated in Qinghai and Xinjiang.The grade of these reserves is relatively low,with many coassociated mineral resources;②The exploitation and utilization of potash resources in China are mainly focused on salt lake brine-type deposits.The production chain for potash fertilizer is lengthy and influenced by numerous factors,including geological conditions,resource endowment,climate,and engineering technology,thereby limiting the growth potential and space for expanding domestic potash supply.It is projected that Chinas annual potash production(K_(2)O)will range between 5-6 million tons from 2024 to 2035;③Chinas potash consumption is expected to be characterized by sustained high demand from 2024 to 2035.According to the forecast,the demand will initially increase,reaching a peak of 13.5 million tons in 2025,before gradually declining to 10.2 million tons by 2035;④Although the reliance on imported potash has decreased from

关 键 词：粮食安全 钾盐资源 地质特征 供需形势分析 资源策略 

分 类 号：P619.211[天文地球—矿床学]