新疆物流产业集聚的时空演化及影响因素研究  

On Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Logistics Industry Agglomeration in Xinjiang,China,and Influencing Factors

作　　者：林秋平[1,2] 李松芮 张晟义 张楠[1] LIN Qiuping;LI Songrui;ZHANG Shengyi;ZHANG Nan(Xinjiang University of Finance&Economics,Urumqi 830012,China;Xinjiang Enterprise Development Research Center,Urumqi 830012,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学,新疆乌鲁木齐830012 [2]新疆企业发展研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《新疆财经》2024年第5期31-42,共12页Finance & Economics of Xinjiang

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于物流产业空间集聚的新疆物流业高质量发展研究”(20BGL020);新疆维吾尔自治区普通高等学校人文社会科学基地新疆企业发展研究中心项目(XJEDU2023J007);新疆财经大学研究生科研创新项目“数字经济对新疆物流业高质量发展的空间效应及机制研究”(XJUFE2024K046)。

摘　　要：文章基于2011—2020年新疆各县市面板数据,结合区位商对新疆物流产业集聚水平进行测度,使用空间自相关与标准差椭圆等分析方法研究新疆物流产业集聚的时空演化特征,运用多尺度地理加权回归等模型分析影响新疆各县市物流产业集聚的因素。研究结果表明:考察期间新疆物流产业集聚水平呈降低态势,物流产业集聚水平相对较高的县市主要集中在铁路沿线;新疆物流产业集聚存在明显的空间自相关,H-H聚类区数量逐渐增加并集中在乌鲁木齐市周边,L-L聚类区数量逐渐减少并集中在南疆县市;新疆物流产业集聚演化方向稳定且呈现先快后慢的扩张特征;各影响因素对物流产业集聚的促进作用由大到小依次为经济发展、政府支持、第三产业占比、区位因素、工业占比、人力资本。基于此,今后应因地制宜探寻提升物流产业集聚水平的新路径,根据不同影响因素的贡献程度以及是否具有空间异质性制定相应的整体政策,以推动新疆各县市物流产业高质量集聚。The paper uses panel data from 2011 to 2020 in counties and cities in Xinjiang,China,and combines the location quotient to measure the level of logistics industry agglomeration in Xinjiang.It uses spatial autocorrelation and the standard de⁃viation ellipse analysis method to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of logistics industry agglomeration in Xinjiang,China,and uses multiscale geographically weighted regression(MGWR)models to analyze the factors influencing lo⁃gistics industry agglomeration in counties and cities in Xinjiang,China.The study shows that the level of logistics industry ag⁃glomeration in Xinjiang,China has decreased,and the counties and cities with relatively high levels of agglomeration are main⁃ly concentrated along the railway lines.There is a clear spatial autocorrelation in logistics industry agglomeration in Xinjiang,with the number of H-H clustering areas gradually increasing and concentrated around Urumqi.The number of L-L clustering areas gradually decreases and concentrates in the counties and cities in southern Xinjiang.The evolution direction of logistics industry agglomeration in Xinjiang is stable and shows an expansion pattern of expanding rapidly at first and then slowly.The factors that promote logistics industry agglomeration in descending order of their contribution are economic development,gov⁃ernment support,the proportion of the tertiary industry,location factors,the proportion of industry,and human capital.In the fu⁃ture,it is necessary to explore new paths to enhance agglomeration levels in a targeted manner,and formulate corresponding overall policies based on the contribution degree of different influencing factors and whether they have spatial heterogeneity,in order to promote the high-quality agglomeration of logistics industries in counties and cities in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：物流产业集聚 时空演化 影响因素 新疆物流产业 

分 类 号：F259.27[经济管理—国民经济]