1961—2020年黄河源区降水时空变化特征研究  

Research on the Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Precipitation in the Source Region of the Yellow River from 1961 to 2020

作　　者：严昌盛 王鹏[1] 靳莉君[1] 刘静[1] 轩党委 张荣刚[1] YAN Changsheng;WANG Peng;JIN Lijun;LIU Jing;XUAN Dangwei;ZHANG Ronggang(Hydrological Bureau of Yellow River Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou 450004,China)

机构地区：[1]黄河水利委员会水文局,河南郑州450004

出　　处：《水文》2024年第5期84-91,共8页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金黄河水科学研究联合基金项目(U2243229);青海黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司科技项目(KY-C-2021-SD07)。

摘　　要：基于1961—2020年黄河源区16个雨量站点的逐日降水资料,应用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall(MK)检验、滑动t检验、Pettitt检验、小波分析、经验正交分解(EOF)方法对黄河源区年降水、季节降水、汛期降水的变化趋势及时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)黄河源区年降水以10.0 mm/10 a的趋势显著增加;除冬季呈不明显的减少趋势外,春季、夏季、秋季和汛期降水同样呈增加趋势。(2)黄河源区降水除春季无明显突变外,全年、夏季、秋季、冬季和汛期的对应突变年份分别为2015年、1998年、2018年、2016年和2019年。(3)黄河源区年降水存在3~7 a、6~12 a、9~13 a和16~24 a的变化周期,第一、第二主周期为19 a和11 a,两种主周期都经历了3次“丰-枯”变化;年降水存在2种模态,4种降水表现类型,2种模态的年份数为35 a和13 a。研究成果可为黄河源区防汛抗旱及上游水库群水资源调度提供参考。Based on the daily precipitation data of 16 rainfall stations in the source region of the Yellow River from 1961 to 2020,the linear trend method,Mann-Kendall(MK) test,sliding t test,Pettitt test,wavelet analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) method were used to analyze the variation trend and spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of annual precipitation,seasonal precipitation and flood season precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River.The results show:(1) The annual precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River increases significantly with a trend of 10.0 mm/10 a.In addition to the insignificant decreasing trend in winter,the precipitation in spring,summer,autumn and flood season also shows an increasing trend.(2) Except for no obvious abrupt change in spring,the corresponding abrupt change years in the whole year,summer,autumn,winter and flood season are 2015,1998,2018,2016 and 2019,respectively.(3) The annual precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River has 3-7 a,6-12 a,9-13 a and 16-24 a change cycles.The first and second main cycles are 19 a and 11 a,and the two main cycles have experienced three 'high-low' changes;There are two modes of annual precipitation,four types of precipitation performance,and the annual number of the two modes is 35 a and 13 a.The results can provide references for flood control and drought relief in the source region of the Yellow River and water resources scheduling of upstream reservoirs.

关 键 词：MANN-KENDALL检验 时空分布 黄河源区 小波分析 经验正交分解 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学] P426[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV11[天文地球—地球物理学]