Risk of Tropical Cyclones and Floods to Power Grids in Southeast and East Asia  

作　　者：Mengqi Ye Philip J.Ward Nadia Bloemendaal Sadhana Nirandjan Elco E.Koks 

机构地区：[1]Institute for Environmental Studies,Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam,1081 HV Amsterdam,The Netherlands [2]Deltares,2629 HV Delft,The Netherlands [3]Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute(KNMI),3731 GA De Bilt,The Netherlands

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》2024年第4期494-507,共14页国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the China Scholarship Council.Elco E.Koks,Philip J.Ward,and Sadhana Nirandjan were funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe MIRACA project(Grant Agreement No.101093854);Horizon 2020 projects MYRIAD-EU(Grant Agreement No.101003276);CoCliCo(Grant Agreement No.101003598).

摘　　要：Power grids play a critical role in modern society, serving as the lifeline of a well-functioning economy. This article presents a first large-scale study on the risk estimation of tropical cyclone(TC)-induced winds and coastal floods, which can widely impact power grids in Southeast and East Asia. Our comprehensive risk model incorporates detailed infrastructure data from OpenStreetMap(OSM) and government power grid maps, along with global hazard maps and vulnerability curves. The results reveal that the estimated expected annual damages from TCs and coastal floods to OSM-mapped assets account for approximately 0.07%(0.00–0.38%) and 0.02%(0.00–0.02%) of the total GDP of the study area, respectively. We analyzed the main sources of uncertainty in the risk model and emphasized the importance of understanding asset vulnerability.These results highlight the urgent need to strengthen power infrastructure to withstand the impacts of natural hazards, and the significance of reliable risk information for improving power grid design and planning. Focusing on developing more region-specific infrastructure data and vulnerability curves will improve the accuracy of risk estimation and provide valuable insights not only for the electricity sector but also for customers of other infrastructure systems that heavily rely on a stable supply of electricity.

关 键 词：Asset level Coastal foods Power grids Risk analysis Tropical cyclones Vulnerability curves 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程] TM727[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]