基于对数平均迪氏指数分解的居民生活用电增长特征分析  

Analysis on the Growth Characteristics of Residential Electricity Consumption Based on Logarithmic Mean Divisa Index Decomposition

作　　者：牟颖 薛万磊 汲国强 刘青 张栋梁 MU Ying;XUE Wanlei;JI Guoqiang;LIU Qing;ZHANG Dongliang(State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company Economic and Technological Research Institute,Jinan 250000,China;State Grid Energy Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102209,China)

机构地区：[1]国网山东省电力公司经济技术研究院,山东济南250000 [2]国网能源研究院有限公司,北京102209

出　　处：《山东电力技术》2024年第10期44-54,共11页Shandong Electric Power

基　　金：国网山东省电力公司科技项目“低碳排放目标及产业结构渐进优化对电力供需格局的影响研究”(520625220001)

摘　　要：近年来,受经济、气温等因素影响,我国居民生活用电增长呈现一系列新特征新变化,深入剖析居民生活用电增长影响因素及机理对于保障电力供应、满足人民美好生活需要具有重要意义。采用对数平均迪氏指数分解法系统构建居民生活用电增长的因素分解模型,逐层剖析拉动居民生活用电增长的主客观影响因素,并定量刻画各因素对居民生活用电量增长的拉动效应。将该模型应用于我国典型区域和典型省份的居民生活用电分析中,分析结果显示我国多数区域居民生活用电增长动力有从基础电量向环境敏感电量转移的趋势,单耗因素成为拉动基础电量和环境敏感电量增长的主要驱动因素,不同省份环境敏感电量占比增长空间和饱和水平各异。针对上述特点,提出相关建议确保做好电力保供工作。In recent years,influenced by factors such as the economy and temperature,the growth of household electricity consumption in China has presented a series of new characteristics and changes.An in-depth analysis of the influencing factors and mechanisms of household electricity consumption growth is of great significance for ensuring electricity supply and meeting the needs of people for a better life.A factor decomposition model for the growth of household electricity consumption was systematically constructed using the logarithmic mean Dirichlet index decomposition method.The subjective and objective influencing factors that drive the growth of household electricity consumption were analyzed layer by layer,and the driving effects of each factor on the growth of household electricity consumption were quantitatively characterized.Applying this model to the analysis of residential electricity consumption in typical regions and provinces of China,the analysis results show that the growth momentum of residential electricity consumption in most regions of China tends to shift from basic electricity to environmentally sensitive electricity,with unit consumption becoming the main driving factor for the growth of basic electricity and environmentally sensitive electricity.The growth space and saturation level of environmentally sensitive electricity in different provinces vary.In response to the above characteristics,opinions and suggestions have been put forward to ensure power supply.

关 键 词：居民生活用电量 因素分解 单耗因素 规模因素 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]