我国登革热输入引发本地传播风险评估与对策分析  

Risk assessment and countermeasure on indigenous transmission of dengue fever caused by imported cases in China

作　　者：翟鸿瑞 周世健 郑云龙 牟笛[3,7] 刘小波 鲁亮[5,7] 李建东 黄晓霞[6,7] 陈秋兰 张彦平[3,7] Zhai Hongrui;Zhou Shijian;Zheng Yunlong;Mu Di;Liu Xiaobo;Lu Liang;Li Jiandong;Huang Xiaoxia;Chen Qiulan;Zhang Yanping(Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program(CFETP),Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100050,China;Department of Acute Infectious Diseases,Qingdao Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Qingdao 266033,China;Division of Infectious Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Bejing,102206,China;Department of Acute Infectious Diseases,Wulian Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wulian 262300,China;National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Disease,Beijing 102206,China.)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心现场流行病学培训项目第23期(CFETP),北京100050 [2]青岛市疾病预防控制中心传染病防制所,山东青岛266033 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病管理处,北京102206 [4]日照市五莲县疾病预防控制中心传染病防制科,山东日照262300 [5]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病所,北京102206 [6]中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病所,北京102206 [7]传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206

出　　处：《中华卫生应急电子杂志》2024年第3期165-172,共8页Chinese Journal of Hygiene Rescue(Electronic Edition)

基　　金：公共卫生应急反应机制运行项目--传染病监测与防治项目(102393220020010000017);国家科技重大专项(2018ZX10101002-003-002)。

摘　　要：目的综合分析国际和我国登革热目前流行形势,对今后一段时期我国登革热本地传播风险进行评估,并提出风险管理建议。方法对全球部分国家和地区及我国登革热疫情和病媒监测信息进行概括描述。采用风险矩阵法对我国不同省份登革热疫情输入引发本地传播风险进行评估。结果近年来全球登革热疫情呈现逐渐增加趋势,2023年登革热疫情全球报告患者数超过650万例。我国2015年至2023年报告登革热患者数呈逐渐增加趋势,每年5~10月为流行季节;云南省、广东省、广西壮族自治区为疫情高发省份。目前我国内地面临的输入风险高于往年,输入引发本地传播高风险的省份为广东省、云南省。结论建议持续关注国际疫情形势,加强重点省份疫情防控,及时开展输入患者追踪管理,落实可持续蚊媒监控措施。Objective To comprehensively analyze the current epidemiological situation of dengue fever at the global level and in China,to assess the indigenous transmission risk of dengue fever in China in the coming period,and to propose recommendation on risk management.Methods The dengue epidemic and vector surveillance information of some countries and regions around the World and in China were described in general terms.The risk matrix method was used to assess the indigenous transmission risk caused by imported cases of dengue fever epidemic in different provinces of China.Results In recent years,the global dengue epidemic had shown a trend of gradual increase,and the cumulative number of reported cases of dengue fever in the world in 2023 were more than 6.5 millions.The number of dengue fever cases reported in China from 2015 to 2023 showed a gradual increase.May to October was the epidemic season every year.Yunnan Province,Guangdong Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region report a higher number of cases.At the present time,China's Mainland faced a higher risk of importation than that of 2023,and the provinces with a high risk of importation of dengue fever triggering local epidemics were Guangdong Province and Yunnan Province.Conclusions It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the international epidemic situation,carry out timely tracking and management of imported cases,and implement sustainable mosquito vector surveillance measures.

关 键 词：登革热 风险矩阵 风险评估 本地传播 输入病例 

分 类 号：R512.8[医药卫生—内科学]