考虑不确定性的LNG低温储罐可靠性建模与分析  

Reliability modelling and analysis of LNG cryogenic storage tanks considering uncertainty

作　　者：王大庆 于海鸿 罗婷婷 王晓黎 梁平 Wang Daqing;Yu Haihong;Luo Tingting;Wang Xiaoli;Liang Ping(School of Petroleum Engineering,Chongqing University of Science&Technology,Chongqing 401331,China;Daqing Oilfield Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Daqing 163712,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆科技大学石油与天然气工程学院,重庆401331 [2]大庆油田设计院有限公司,大庆163712

出　　处：《低温工程》2024年第5期87-97,共11页Cryogenics

基　　金：重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX0772);重庆市技术预见与制度创新项目(cstc2021jsyj-yzysbAX0024)。

摘　　要：LNG低温储罐是液化天然气(LNG)储存和运输的关键设施,鉴于其失效影响因素众多以及失效状态的多样性和因果关系的模糊性,提出了一套基于不确定性理论技术的LNG储罐可靠性建模与分析方法。首先,利用T-S模糊故障树替代传统事故树建造LNG储罐失效事故模型,以保障建模精度及分析的细粒度;其次,采用专家辅助的机械化分配法来应对T-S模糊门描述规则数量激增时概率分配的挑战,同时引入模糊群体决策理论来解决失效数据稀缺条件下基本事件先验概率估计的问题;最后,通过映射机制将LNG储罐T-S事故树转化为贝叶斯网络(BN),利用BN双向推理和多源信息融合优势,高效求解可靠性指标并快速诊断关键致因。针对某LNG低温储罐的可靠性评估,验证了所提出方法的实用性和有效性,可为LNG储罐系统的设计优化和可靠性维护提供理论支持和决策指导。LNG cryogenic storage tanks serve as a crucial facility for the storage and transpor-tation of liquefied natural gas(LNG).Given the numerous factors that can contribute to failures,as well as the diversity of failure states and the ambiguity of causal relationships,a reliability modeling and analysis method for LNG storage tanks is proposed based on uncertainty theory and techniques.Firstly,the T-S fuzzy fault tree is utilized to replace the traditional fault tree construct an LNG storage tank failure model,so as to ensure modeling accuracy and analytical granularity.Secondly,an expert-assisted mechanized allocation method is adopted to address the challenge of probability allocation when the number of T-S fuzzy gate description rules increases significantly,while fuzzy group decision-making theory is introduced to solve the problem of estimating the prior probabilities of basic events under conditions of scarce failure data.Finally,through a mapping mechanism,the LNG storage tank T-S fault tree is transformed into a Bayesian network(BN),leveraging the advantages of BN’s bidirectional reasoning and multi-source information fusion to efficiently solve reliability indicators and rapidly diagnose key causes.The reliability assessment of a specific LNG cryogenic storage tank has verified the practicality and effectiveness of the pro-posed method,providing theoretical support and decision-making guidance for the design optimi-zation and reliability maintenance of LNG storage tank systems.

关 键 词：不确定性 T-S模糊故障树 贝叶斯网络 可靠性分析 LNG低温储罐 

分 类 号：TB657[一般工业技术—制冷工程]