快速城市化背景下的武汉市生态系统服务价值变化及预测研究  

Study on the change and prediction of ecosystem service value in Wuhan under the background of rapid urbanization

作　　者：刘凤莲 杨人懿 杨磊 彭海英[1,2] LIU Fenglian;YANG Renyi;YANG Lei;PENG Haiying(Institute of Land Resources and Sustainable Development,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,China;Institute of Targeted Poverty Alleviation and Development,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,China)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学国土资源与持续发展研究所,昆明650221 [2]云南财经大学精准扶贫与发展研究院,昆明650221

出　　处：《生态科学》2024年第3期124-134,共11页Ecological Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(41931293);云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2021J0592)。

摘　　要：基于武汉市2000—2015年间的土地利用和社会经济数据,采用FLUS模型模拟2020—2035年间的土地利用时空变化,估算同时期生态系统服务价值的变化。结果表明:(1)2000—2015年建设用地的扩张挤占了耕地、林地、水域等其他生态空间。未来武汉市建设用地继续扩大,耕地、林地、水域、草地、未利用地减少,建设用地呈以中心城市为核心,多轴多心的开放式扩张格局,耕地渐趋破碎化。(2)水域、耕地和林地的生态系统服务价值构成了生态系统服务总值的主体,三者之和占生态系统服务总价值的90%以上。2000—2015年生态系统服务总价值下降5.73亿元,预测到2035年减少到323.24亿元,比2000年减少32.22亿元。Based on the land use and socio-economic data from 2000 to 2015 in Wuhan,this paper used the FLUS model to simulate spatio-temporal changes of land use from 2020 to 2035,and further estimated the value of ecosystem services.The results showed that:1)The expansion of construction land occupied other ecological spaces of farmland,woodland and water area from 2000 to 2015.It is predicted that the construction land will continue to expand,while the farmland,woodland,water area,grassland and unused land will decrease.The construction land presents an open expansion pattern with central cities as the core and multi-axes and multi-centers,while the farmland is becoming fragmented.2)The ecosystem service value of water area,farmland and woodland constitutes the main part of the total value of ecosystem service,which together accounts for more than 90%of the total value of ecosystem service.The total value of ecosystem service decreased by 573 million yuan between 2000 to 2015 and it will decrease to 323.24 billion yuan in 2035,which is 32.22 billion yuan less than that in 2000.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 FLUS模型 生态系统服务价值 城市化 武汉市 

分 类 号：X87[环境科学与工程—环境工程]