青藏高原夏季极端降水研究进展与展望  

Research progress and prospects on summer extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

作　　者：刘俏华 姚秀萍 马嘉理[4] 李若莹 LIU Qiaohua;YAO Xiuping;MA Jiali;LI Ruoying(School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;State Key Laboratory of Severes Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;China Meteorological Administration Training Centre,Beijing 100081,China;Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [3]中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京100081 [4]中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2024年第5期737-754,共18页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42030611);第二次青藏高原科学考察与研究(STEP)计划(2019QZKK0105);江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目(KYCX23_1301)。

摘　　要：在全球变暖背景下,极端降水正日益频繁、剧烈并影响更广泛的区域。特别是在气候变化的敏感区域——青藏高原(以下简称高原),这些现象的发生频率和强度均有显著增加,对当地乃至下游地区的生态环境和生产生活造成了重大影响。因此,对高原极端降水进行深入研究具有深远的科学意义和社会价值。本文从极端降水定义与指数、高原夏季极端降水特征、影响高原夏季极端降水的因素、高原夏季极端降水的灾害风险与未来预估四个方面,对近几十年来高原夏季极端降水的相关研究成果进行了回顾。通过梳理和分析相关领域的研究成果,以期为研究者提供清晰的研究脉络和前沿动态,促进学术交流与合作,共同推动高原极端降水领域的科学研究持续深入,为全球气候变化及极端天气气候事件研究和应对提供更加坚实和有力的科学支撑。With global warming,extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent and intense,affecting broader regions and presenting significant global challenges.The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,known as the“roof of the world,”has a unique geographical position and fragile ecosystem,making it particularly sensitive to climate change.Extreme precipitation events exacerbate the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and trigger natural disasters such as landslides,mudslides,and floods,posing severe risks to local populations and ecosystems.This paper provides a comprehensive review of recent research on summer extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,focusing on four key aspects:1)definitions and indices of extreme precipitation;2)characteristics of summer extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau;3)factors influencing extreme summer precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau;and 4)disaster risks and future projections of summer extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The percentile threshold method is widely used to define extreme precipitation,revealing a pattern of“less in the northwest and more in the southeast”across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.There is a notable increasing trend in extreme precipitation,characterized by extended durations and a greater contribution to total precipitation.Extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is highly sensitive to both natural and anthropogenic factors.The determinants are complex and multifaceted,involving interactions with global warming,atmospheric circulation patterns,and multi-scale weather systems.Key dynamic and thermodynamic factors,such as ascending motions,moisture transport and convergence,and enhanced atmospheric convective instability,create conditions conducive to the intensification of extreme precipitation.Future climate model projections consistently suggest an intensification of the global water cycle,increasing the frequency and magnitude of extrem

关 键 词：青藏高原 夏季极端降水 全球变暖 海温异常 灾害风险 未来预估 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]