基于VWM-GRA的新型Fuzzy-FMEA复杂装备风险评估方法  

New Fuzzy-FMEA risk-assessment method for complex equipment based on VWM-GRA

作　　者：程永波[1] 刘晓 张巧可 万良琪 CHENG Yongbo;LIU Xiao;ZHANG Qiaoke;WAN Liangqi(School of Management Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Finance&Economics,Nanjing 210023;School of International Economics and Business,Nanjing University of Finance&Economics,Nanjing 210023;School of Marketing and Logistics Management,Nanjing University of Finance&Economics,Nanjing 210023)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学管理科学与工程学院,江苏南京210023 [2]南京财经大学国际经贸学院,江苏南京210023 [3]南京财经大学营销与物流管理学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《机械设计》2024年第7期89-98,共10页Journal of Machine Design

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72072080,72072089,71774072);江苏省高等学校基础科学(自然科学)研究面上项目(24KJB630007,24KJB630008);教育部产学研协同育人项目(230702137243037,230806708031646);中国高等教育科学研究规划课题(22CJ0407);江苏省社科应用研究精品工程社会教育专项课题(23SJC-30);南京财经大学学位与研究生教育课题(Y22007);南京财经大学教学改革课题(JGY2001070);南京财经大学高等教育与改革发展研究课题(GJGF202137);南京财经大学改革发展专项课题(XGFB3202309);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX24-1920)。

摘　　要：失效模式和影响分析(Failure Mode and Effect Analysis,FMEA)是一种识别和预防复杂装备潜在故障模式的风险评估方法,然而,现有FMEA方法采用等权重和精确数表征不确定情形下的风险因素评估信息,导致风险优先数(Risk Priority Number,RPN)难以准确评估复杂装备故障模式的风险优先级。针对这一难题,文中提出了一种基于变权方法-灰色关联分析(Variable Weight Method-Grey Relation Analysis,VWM-GRA)的新型Fuzzy-FMEA复杂装备风险评估方法。在风险因素权重分配方面,在模糊熵值法的基础上,考虑风险评估信息对风险因素权重的影响,构建风险因素变权综合模型以动态调整风险因素权重值,据此确定风险因素的客观变权重;在风险优先数排序方面,在模糊语言变量表征风险因素评估信息的基础上,考虑风险因素评估信息不确定性量化对故障模式排序精度的影响,构建故障模式模糊灰色关联分析模型,以获取评估信息数据序列间的相对关联度,据此评估故障模式的风险优先级。最后,通过航空发动机主轴轴承的故障模式风险实例,分析验证文中方法的有效性。案例分析表明:该方法能够有效解决不确定情形下准确评估复杂装备故障模式风险优先级的难题。Failure Mode and Effect Analysis(FMEA)is a risk-assessment method for identifying and preventing potential failure modes of complex equipment.However,the current FMEA method uses equal weights and precise numbers to represent the information on the assessment of risk factors in uncertain situations,thus making it difficult to accurately assess the risk priority of complex equipment’s failure modes with the help of Risk Priority Number(RPN).In this article,in response to this challenge,a new Fuzzy-FMEA risk-assessment method for complex equipment is proposed based on Variable Weight Method-Grey Relationship Analysis(VWM-GRA).As for weight allocation of risk factors,according to the fuzzy entropy method,with the impact of the risk-assessment information on the weight of risk factors taken into consideration,a variable weight comprehensive model of risk factors is set up,in order to dynamically adjust the weight values of risk factors,and then the objective variable weights of risk factors are determined.In terms of risk priority ranking,based on representing the information on the assessment of risk factors by the fuzzy language variables,efforts are made to consider the impact of uncertainty quantification of the information on the assessment of risk factors on the accuracy in failure-mode ranking;a fuzzy grey correlation analysis model of failure modes is constructed,so as to obtain the relative correlation between data sequences of the risk-assessment information;next,the risk priority of failure modes is assessed.Finally,through the example of the failure-mode risk of the aircraft engine’s main shaft bearing,it is verified that this method is effective.The case study shows that with the help of this method,the risk priority of complex equipment’s failure modes in uncertain situations can be worked out in an effective manner.

关 键 词：失效模式和影响分析 变权综合模型 模糊灰色关联分析 风险评估 

分 类 号：F253.3[经济管理—国民经济] TH17[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]