网格温度预报产品在甘肃地区的适用性检验评估  

Applicability testing and evaluation of grid temperature prediction products in Gansu region

作　　者：彭筱[1] 陈晓燕[1] Peng Xiao;Chen Xiaoyan(Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory,Lanzhou 730020)

机构地区：[1]兰州中心气象台,兰州730020

出　　处：《气象水文海洋仪器》2024年第5期63-66,共4页Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments

基　　金：甘肃省气象局气象科研项目(Zd2021-01);兰州中心气象台业务科技创新基金项目(LCMO-202304)资助。

摘　　要：为了解智能网格温度预报在甘肃地区的预报效果和误差特征,文章针对甘肃省78个国家气象站2022年3月-2023年2月ECMWF模式、中国气象局下发的国家级网格指导报SCMOC和甘肃省省级网格预报SPCC的日最高和最低气温预报产品开展检验评估。结果表明:SCMOC、SPCC网格预报日最高和最低气温准确率明显高于ECMWF模式,前两者日最高和最低气温预报质量较ECMWF模式有显著提升;SCMOC、SPCC日最高和最低气温准确率空间分布较为一致,在甘岷山区预报性能较差,主要与山区气温变化幅度较大有关,气温变化幅度较大,增加了预报的不确定性;ECMWF、SCMOC、SPCC对于降温的预报强度较实况偏弱,其中SCMOC对于降温的预报范围较ECMWF、SPCC更接近实况。研究旨在为网格温度预报产品在甘肃本地化的应用提供借鉴。In order to understand the intelligent grid temperature prediction effect and error characteristics in gansu region,this article conducted a test and evaluation of the daily highest and lowest temperature forecasting products of the ECMWF model from 78 national meteorological stations in Gansu Province from March 2022 to February 2023,the national grid guidance report SCMOC issued by the China Meteorological Administration,and the provincial grid forecast SPCC in Gansu Province.The results showed that the accuracy of SCMOC and SPCC grid forecasts for daily maximum and minimum temperatures was significantly higher than that of ECMWF models,and the quality of daily highest and lowest temperature forecasts for the first two models was significantly improved compared to ECMWF models.The spatial distribution of the accuracy of the highest and lowest daily temperatures in SCMOC and SPCC is relatively consistent.The poor forecasting performance in the Ganmin mountainous area is mainly related to the large amplitude of temperature changes in the mountainous area,which increases the uncertainty of the forecast;ECMWF,SCMOC,and SPCC have weaker predictive strength for cooling compared to actual conditions,with SCMOC s predictive range for cooling being closer to actual conditions than ECMWF and SPCC.The research aim to provide reference for the localized application of grid temperature forecasting products in Gansu.

关 键 词：智能网格预报 网格温度预报 预报准确率 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]