赤羽病通过云南边境地区活牛走私传入我国的定量风险评估  

Quantitative risk assessment of Akabane disease imported into China through live cattle smuggling in Yunnan border areas

作　　者：李超[1,2] 戴美霞 王双翔 独佳芸 黄克和 张毅[3] 薛峰 LI Chao;DAI Meixia;WANG Shuangxiang;DU Jiayun;HUANG Kehe;ZHANG Yi;XUE Feng(College of Veterinary Medicine,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China;China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center/Key Laboratory of Animal Biosafety Risk Prevention and Control(South),Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Key Laboratory of Animal Biosafety of Qingdao City,Qingdao 266032,China;Zunyi Medical University,Zunyi 563004,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学动物医学院,江苏南京210095 [2]中国动物卫生与流行病学中心/农业农村部动物生物安全风险预警及防控重点实验室(南方)/青岛市动物生物安全重点实验室,山东青岛266032 [3]遵义医科大学,贵州遵义563004

出　　处：《畜牧与兽医》2024年第11期94-99,共6页Animal Husbandry & Veterinary Medicine

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1800500);黔科合基础-ZK[2023]重点057项目。

摘　　要：为分析评估云南边境地区活牛走私传入赤羽病的可能性,收集整理云南边境地区活牛非法调入数量等信息,利用“情景树”法建立传入风险随机模型并进行仿真分析。结果显示:每走私调入1头境外活牛,赤羽病传入我国的概率为50.37%(95%CI:41.64%~60.29%),每年约有76头感染赤羽病的活牛自云南边境走私进入我国,境外活牛走私导致赤羽病传入我国的风险仍不容忽视,赤羽病通过境外活牛走私传入我国的风险取决于境外活牛被我国海关查获并无害化处理的可能性,建议加强边境的管控力度和海关的查获力度。本研究对赤羽病通过云南边境地区活牛走私传入我国的风险进行了定量评估研究,为我国防范赤羽病的境外传入提供了重要的数据支撑。This study was to analyze and assess the potential risk of smuggling live cattle infected with Akabane disease into the Yunnan border regions.Related data were gathered and organized pertinent on the illicit importation of livestock in those areas.Leveraging the“scenario tree”approach,we constructed a stochastic model to forecast the risk of disease transmission and conducted simulations.Our findings revealed that,for each smuggled foreign live cattle,the likelihood of Akabane disease infiltrating China stood at 50.37%,with a 95%confidence interval(CI)ranging from 42.11%to 60.26%.We further estimated that approximately 76 infected cattle entered China annually through smuggling routes in the Yunnan border regions.The continued risk of Akabane disease entering China via smuggling foreign live cattle remained considerable,contingent upon the probability of these animals being intercepted and undergoing safe disposal by Chinese customs.Consequently,we strongly recommended that border control and customs interception efforts be enhanced and promoted.This study offered a quantitative evaluation of the risk posed by smuggling live cattle infected with Akabane disease into China through Yunnan border regions,and provided crucial data to support efforts in preventing the foreign transmission of this disease into China.

关 键 词：赤羽病 定量风险评估 活牛 走私 

分 类 号：S852.6[农业科学—基础兽医学]