极端降雨后泥石流发生特征及概率研究——以中国台湾陈友兰流域为例  

Study on Debris Flow Characteristics and Probability After Extreme Rainfall:Case Study on Chenyulan Watershed,Taiwan,China

作　　者：罗世林 刘华亮 郭彩赟 LUO Shilin;LIU Hualiang;GUO Caiyun(College of Civil Engineering,Changsha University,Changsha 410022,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙学院土木工程学院,长沙410022

出　　处：《工业建筑》2024年第10期175-182,共8页Industrial Construction

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金项目(2022JJ40521);湖南省教育厅一般项目(21C0753)。

摘　　要：降雨和其他极端事件经常引发泥石流灾害。以受集集地震和极端降雨影响的中国台湾中部陈友兰流域为研究区,探索极端降雨后泥石流的发生特征和发生概率。结果显示:极端降雨事件后诱发泥石流灾害的临界降雨强度会降低,随后恢复至原始值大小;临界降雨强度的降低及其所需的恢复期与极端降雨事件的降雨强度明显相关。泥石流发生概率P与重现期T之间的关系模型表明极端降雨事件后的泥石流发生概率明显增大,P-T关系模型的进一步验证表明该模型能较好地预测泥石流灾害的发生。地震前、后诱发泥石流发生的降雨强度具有明显差异,地震和极端降雨共同作用下更易导致泥石流灾害的发生。Debris flow were often triggered by rainfall and other extreme events.The occurrence characteristics and probability of debris flow after extreme rainfall were explored in the Chenyulan watershed in central Taiwan,China,which was affected by the Chi-Chi earthquake and extreme rainfall.The results showed that the critical rainfall intensity to induce debris flow after extreme rainfall events would decrease and then recover the original value.The reduction of critical rainfall intensity and the required recovery period were significantly correlated with the rainfall intensity of extreme rainfall events.The relation model between the occurrence probability of the debris flow P and the return period T showed that the occurrence probability of the debris flow increased significantly after extreme rainfall events,and the further verification on the P-T relation showed that the model could better predict the occurrence of debris flow disasters.The rainfall intensity triggering the debris flow before and after earthquakes was significantly different,and the combined effect of earthquakes and extreme rainfall was more apt to trigger the occurrence of debris flow disasters.

关 键 词：极端降雨 泥石流 泥石流概率 泥石流特征 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]