Convection-Permitting Simulations of Current and Future Climates over the Tibetan Plateau  

作　　者：Liwei ZOU Tianjun ZHOU 

机构地区：[1]LASG,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2024年第10期1901-1916,共16页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2022YFF0802004);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41988101 and 42275182);the K.C. Wang Education Foundation (Grant No. GJTD-2019-05);the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change;the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility” (Earth Lab)

摘　　要：The Tibetan Plateau(TP)region,also known as the“Asian water tower”,provides a vital water resource for downstream regions.Previous studies of water cycle changes over the TP have been conducted with climate models of coarse resolution in which deep convection must be parameterized.In this study,we present results from a first set of highresolution climate change simulations that permit convection at approximately 3.3-km grid spacing,with a focus on the TP,using the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Weather and Climate Model(ICON).Two 12-year simulations were performed,consisting of a retrospective simulation(2008–20)with initial and boundary conditions from ERA5 reanalysis and a pseudoglobal warming projection driven by modified reanalysis-derived initial and boundary conditions by adding the monthly CMIP6 ensemble-mean climate change under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The retrospective simulation shows overall good performance in capturing the seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature.Over the central and eastern TP,the average biases in precipitation(temperature)are less than−0.34 mm d−1(−1.1℃)throughout the year.The simulated biases over the TP are height-dependent.Cold(wet)biases are found in summer(winter)above 5500 m.The future climate simulation suggests that the TP will be wetter and warmer under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The general features of projected changes in ICON are comparable to the CMIP6 ensemble projection,but the added value from kilometer-scale modeling is evident in both precipitation and temperature projections over complex topographic regions.These ICON-downscaled climate change simulations provide a high-resolution dataset to the community for the study of regional climate changes and impacts over the TP.

关 键 词：dynamical downscaling convection-permitting Tibetan Plateau pseudo-global warming 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]