2023年的缅甸:冲突升级与危机应对  

Conflict Escalation and Crisis Response in Myanmar in 2023

作　　者：刘静 夏志款 祝湘辉 Liu Jing;Xia Zhikuan;Zhu Xianghui(Yunnan University,Kunming,650091,China;Shenzhen University,Shenzhen,518061,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学国际关系研究院,云南昆明650091 [2]一带一路研究院 [3]深圳大学外国语学院,广东深圳518061

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2024年第5期86-97,共12页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：2024年云南省社科规划智库项目“缅甸政局前景与中缅关系走向研究”资助中期成果。

摘　　要：缅甸自2021年政局突变以来一直处于动荡之中,2023年,各方面情况继续恶化,军方陷入政治、经济和社会等多重危机,采取各种手段来维持执政地位、稳定经济形势和寻求外交突破。政治上,国家管理委员会虽然通过改组政府、打击贪腐等措施试图维稳,然而,“民族团结政府”、少数民族地方武装、人民保卫军等各反军方势力开始结盟、互为犄角,与军方之间的矛盾不断激化,导致缅甸全国范围内频发暴力事件和武装冲突。国家管理委员会疲于应对战事,在部分省邦地区丧失有效治理权,造成国家主权结构碎片化。经济上,尽管国家管理委员会调整产业战略、努力平衡贸易、管制外汇,但经济受政治牵累严重,致使其不得不采取极端措施来保证政权生存,加之国际制裁、内部冲突和货币贬值等影响,缅甸经济未能延续复苏势头,总体严重下滑,外贸和投资大幅减少,给民众生活带来困难。在外交领域,美西方国家以“民主”“人权”为旗帜,以改变缅甸政治进程为目的,加大对缅甸经济制裁和政治孤立力度,缅甸与美西方国家关系继续恶化。但国际冲突和紧张局势吸引了全球的注意力,在一定程度上有利于缅甸军政权在大国博弈的夹缝中生存。为寻求在国际上的支持和帮助,缅甸军政权在维持与中印等大国传统友好关系的基础上主动向俄罗斯靠近。2023年,东盟“五点共识”未发挥实效,东盟内部对缅甸问题态度分歧严重;缅甸放弃2026年东盟轮值主席国资格,也是无奈之举。2024年及可预见的未来,政治上,缅甸军方面对巨大的反叛压力和内部安全问题,难以兑现大选承诺。经济上,缅甸经济预计继续低迷。外交上,尽管缅甸军政府使用对冲“、平衡”等应对手段,但由于美西方制裁升级,其将面临更大的外交挑战。总体来看,缅甸深陷政治、经济和外交的多重危机,发展道路仍�Myanmar has been in turmoil since the sudden political change in 2021,and the situation continued to deteriorate on all fronts in 2023 with the Tatmadaw caught in multiple crises in the political,economic and social spheres,and resorting to various means in order to maintain its ruling position,stabilize the economic situation and seek a diplomatic breakthrough.Politically,although the Myanmar State Administration Council(SAC)tried to maintain stability by reorganizing the government and cracking down on corruption,anti-military forces including the National Unity Government(NUG),Ethnic Armed Organizations(EAO)and the People's Defense Forces(PDF)allied themselves with each other,and the conflicts with the military continued to intensify,leading to frequent violence and ongoing armed conflicts throughout the country.The SAC has been embattled in dealing with the war,leading to the loss of effective governance in some provinces and regions and the fragmentation of the national sovereignty structure.Economically,despite the SAC's efforts to adjust industrial strategies,balance trade,and regulate foreign exchange,the economy has been seriously shadowed by politics,which has compelled SAC to take extreme measures to ensure its survival.In addition,international sanctions,internal conflicts and currency depreciation have all resulted in a failure to continue the momentum of recovery and a serious downturn in the overall situation with a sharp decline in foreign trade and investment,and hardship for people's livelihoods.Diplomatically,relations between Myanmar and the United States and Western countries have spanned to worsen as the United States and Western countries intensify their economic sanctions and political isolation of Myanmar under the banner of democracy and human rights to change the political process in Myanmar.However,international conflicts and tensions have attracted global attention,which to a certain extent favors the survival of the military regime in Myanmar in the interstices of the great power gam

关 键 词：缅甸 政治冲突 经济发展 外交关系 

分 类 号：D833.7[政治法律—政治学] F133.7[政治法律—外交学] D733.7[经济管理—世界经济]