中国旅游产业韧性时空格局演变及影响因素研究  

On the Evolution and Influencing Factors of the Resilience Spatial and Temporal Pattern of China's Tourism Industry

作　　者：程雪兰 苏玫瑰[1] CHENG Xuelan;SU Meigui(Chizhou University,Chizhou 247100,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]池州学院,安徽池州247100

出　　处：《四川旅游学院学报》2024年第6期87-95,共9页Journal of Sichuan Tourism University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“城市旅游流网络结构韧性的测度体系、时空演化与影响机制——以长三角城市群为例”,项目编号:42171238;池州学院人文社科一般项目“数字经济赋能安徽省文旅融合发展的机制和路径研究”,项目编号:CZ2024RW06。

摘　　要：增强旅游产业韧性是当前旅游业高质量发展的必然要求。文章基于PSR模型构建旅游产业韧性指标体系,利用熵值法对2005—2021年中国30个省域旅游产业韧性水平进行测度,通过空间自相关、核密度估计、马尔科夫链模型、地理探测器等方法分析中国旅游产业韧性水平时空演变特征及影响因素。研究发现:(1)研究期内中国旅游产业韧性水平总体呈逐步上升态势;东部和西部地区绝对差异呈扩大态势,两极分化特征明显,中部地区旅游产业韧性较为接近,无明显分化特征,东北地区两极分化趋势减弱。(2)旅游产业韧性高值区主要分布在山东、江苏、广东等东部沿海地区,中国旅游产业韧性呈现高—高集聚和低—低集聚的空间关联格局;在连续转移过程中存在显著的路径依赖和马太效应。(3)区域旅游产业韧性并非受某单一因素的影响,是多个因子“合力”作用的结果,其中,政府干预和市场化水平是影响旅游产业韧性水平的长期主导因子,旅游产业的提升需要市场与政府“两只手”的协调与配合。Enhancing the resilience of the tourism industry is an inevitable requirement for the high-quality development of the current tourism industry.The article constructs a resilience index system for the tourism industry based on the PSR model,and uses the entropy method to measure the resilience level of the tourism industry in 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2021.Through methods such as spatial autocorrelation,kernel density estimation,Markov chain model,and geographic detector,the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of China s tourism industry resilience level are analyzed.The results indicate that:(1)During the research period,the overall resilience level of China s tourism industry showed a gradual upward trend;The absolute difference between the eastern and western regions is expanding,with obvious polarization characteristics.The tourism industry in the central region is relatively resilient,without obvious differentiation characteristics.The polarization trend in the northeast region is weakening.(2)The high-value areas of tourism industry resilience are mainly distributed in eastern coastal areas such as Shandong,Jiangsu,and Guangdong.The resilience of China s tourism industry presents a spatial correlation pattern of high high agglomeration and low low agglomeration;There are significant path dependencies and Matthew effects in the continuous transfer process.(3)The resilience of regional tourism industry is not influenced by a single factor,but is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors.Among them,government intervention and marketization level are the long-term dominant factors affecting the resilience level of the tourism industry.The improvement of the tourism industry requires coordination and cooperation between the market and the government.

关 键 词：旅游产业韧性 时空格局 马尔科夫链 影响因素 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]