基于混合因果逻辑的化工园区雷击储罐风险评估  

Risk assessment of chemical industrial park storage tanks struck by lightning based on hybrid causal logic methodology

作　　者：杨震[1,2] 梁峻铭 郭梨 董晓斌[3] YANG Zhen;LIANG Junming;GUO Li;DONG Xiaobin(School of Resources Engineering,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an Shaanxi 710055,China;Xi'an Key Laboratory of Perceptual Computing and Decision-making in Intelligent Industry,Xi'an Shaanxi 710055,China;School of Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学资源工程学院,陕西西安710055 [2]西安市智慧工业感知计算与决策重点实验室,陕西西安710055 [3]中国矿业大学安全工程学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第9期174-182,共9页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51974223);陕西省杰出青年基金资助(2020JC-44);陕西省自然科学基金面上项目(2022JM-274)。

摘　　要：沿海化工园区的雷击事故时有发生,对园区生产安全构成严重威胁。为评估化工园区雷击储罐引发的Natech事故,提出一种基于混合因果逻辑(HCL)的风险评估方法。首先,采用事件序列图(ESD)和故障树分析法(FTA),定性分析雷击储罐导致Natech事故的演化路径,为阻断事故传递过程提供可视化基础;其次,采用贝叶斯网络(BN)定量解算人因失误概率,评估雷击储罐事故的混合因果关系;最后,采用混合因果逻辑方法,实现可视化解构雷击储罐Natech事故的复杂性和不确定性。研究结果表明:决策失误是人因失误模型的首要风险源;组织氛围、心理状态、工作环境不佳及监管不力是导致人因失误频繁的主要因素;防雷设施有效性缺失是雷击储罐事故链的诱因;降低风险场景的严重性需要重点加强对全液面火灾和池火灾的管控。Coastal chemical industrial parks have frequently experienced lightning strikes,which seriously threaten production safety.A risk assessment method based on HCL methodology was proposed to assess Natech(Natural-technological)accidents triggered by lightning strikes on storage tanks in these parks.Firstly,ESD and Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)were employed to qualitatively analyze the evolution paths of Natech accidents caused by lightning strikes on storage tanks,providing a visual foundation for blocking the accident transmission process.Secondly,BN were used to quantitatively calculate human error probabilities and assess the hybrid causal relationships of lightning-induced storage tank accidents.Finally,HCl methodology was applied to visually deconstruct the complexity and uncertainty of Natech accidents caused by lightning strikes on storage tanks.The research results indicate that decision-making error is the primary risk source in the human error model.Organizational atmosphere,psychological state,poor working environment and inadequate supervision are identified as the main factors leading to frequent human errors.The lack of effectiveness of lightning protection facilities is recognized as the trigger in the accident chain of lightning strikes on storage tanks.To reduce the severity of risk scenarios,emphasis needs to be placed on strengthening the control of full-surface fires and pool fires.

关 键 词：混合因果逻辑(HCL) 化工园区 雷击储罐 风险评估 贝叶斯网络(BN) 事件序列图(ESD) 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]