大型活动踩踏事故“态-势”情景构建与组合推演方法  

Research on'status and trends'scenario construction and combination deduction method of stampede accident in large-scale activities

作　　者：刘艺[1] 李茂源 王欣芝 张辉[3] LIU Yi;LI Maoyuan;WANG Xinzhi;ZHANG Hui(Capital Social Security Research Base,People's Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China;School of Computer Engineering and Science,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China;Institute of Public Safty Research,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学首都社会安全研究基地,北京100038 [2]上海大学计算机工程与科学学院,上海200444 [3]清华大学公共安全研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第9期183-190,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(71904193);公安部技术研究计划项目(2023JSYJC19)。

摘　　要：为解决大型活动踩踏事故形成过程情景描述困难,决策者对大型活动踩踏事故情景演化不易掌握等问题,提出大型活动踩踏事故“态-势”情景构建与组合推演方法。首先,从影响大型活动形成的人、场地、管理、环境4因素提取大型活动踩踏事故情景要素,建立对大型活动研究的“态”“势”形式化表达方法;其次,基于马尔可夫模型,给出情景“态-势”转化的推演描述与计算方法;最后,以上海外滩事故为例进行实证分析。结果表明:提出的大型活动踩踏事故“态-势”情景构建与推演方法,能够提供情景结构化表达的统一方式和突发事件情景之间演化进程的重构还原。实证分析结果显示,推演结果与外滩事故实际发展过程基本一致,证明所提方法具有一定的科学性和有效性。In order to address the challenges associated with characterizing the scenarios of stampede accidents and facilitating comprehension of these scenarios among decision-makers,a method for constructing and combining scenarios of large-scale event stampede accidents was proposed.Firstly,the scene elements of stampede accidents were extracted in large-scale events from the four factors that affect the formation of large-scale activities:people,venue,management,and environment,and a formal expression method for"state"and"trends"of large-scale activities research was established.Secondly,based on Markov model,a deduction description and calculation method for the transformation of situational"state-trends"was provided.Finally,an example analysis was conducted using Shanghai Bund accident.The findings of empirical analyses indicate that deductive results are largely aligned with the actual development process of the 2014 Shanghai stampede.This evidence substantiates the scientific rigour and efficacy of methodology proposed in the paper.

关 键 词：大型活动 踩踏事故 “态-势”情景 情景构建 组合推演 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]