东北地区农业保险发展的地区差异及其成因测算  

Regional Differences and Causes of Agricultural Insurance Development in Northeast China

作　　者：石印 王煜皓 周娇娇 邢慧霞 李娟 SHI Yin;WANG Yuhao;ZHOU Jiaojiao;XING Huixia;LI Juan

机构地区：[1]山东第一医科大学医疗保障学院,山东济南250117 [2]河南财经政法大学金融学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《保险职业学院学报》2024年第4期37-49,共13页Journal of Insurance Professional College

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“‘双碳’背景下农业减排固碳与粮食安全协同推进研究”(22AJY008);山东省社科规划研究专项项目“文旅产业赋能乡村振兴的效应评估与优化路径研究”(23CLYJ48)。

摘　　要：东北地区承担着保障国家粮食安全的战略重任,掌握东北地区农业保险发展的时空演变规律、空间发展不平衡情况及成因,能够为东北地区粮食稳产保供乃至全面振兴提供决策参考。本文从农业有保障、机构可持续、需求成规模三个层面综合评价东北地区农业保险发展状况,利用Dagum基尼系数和方差分解方法探究东北地区农业保险空间发展不平衡的程度及内在结构来源,并利用地理探测器进一步探究造成其空间发展不平衡的外部因素。研究发现:1.2007—2021年,东北地区农业保险整体呈现出良好发展态势,在区位发展上表现为“西高东低、北高南低”的分布态势;从各分项指标的发展情况看,保险公司运营农业保险的可持续性不断减弱,成为东北地区农业保险健康发展中的一个堵点问题。2.在样本考察期内,东北地区农业保险发展的地区差异持续扩大,从空间来源看,各省级行政区之间的差异是总体差异不断增大的主要来源,且辽宁与内蒙古东部地区之间的差异最大;从指标构成来源看,“需求成规模”与“农业有保障”两个指标的区域差异对总体区域差异的贡献较大,而“机构可持续”则对总体区域差异的扩大起到了一定的抑制作用。3.从外部驱动因素看,人均农林水事务支出以及农业机械总动力对东北地区农业保险空间发展不平衡的驱动程度最为显著。Northeast China bears the strategic responsibility of ensuring national food security.Understanding the spatio-temporal evolution law,spatial imbalance and causes of agricultural insurance development in Northeast China can provide decision-making reference for stable grain production and supply and even comprehensive revitalization in Northeast China.This paper comprehensively evaluated the development status of agricultural insurance in Northeast China from three aspects:agricultural security,institutional sustainability and demand to scale.The Dagum Gini coefficient and variance decomposition method were used to explore the extent and internal structural sources of the spatial development imbalance of agricultural insurance in Northeast China,and the external driving factors of the spatial development imbalance were further explored by using geographic detectors.The research findings are as follows:1.From 2007 to 2021,agricultural insurance in Northeast China presents a good development trend as a whole,with a distribution trend of“high in the west and low in the east,high in the north and low in the south”in terms of location development.From the development of each sub-index,the sustainability of insurance companies’operation of agricultural insurance is constantly weakening,becoming a blocking problem in the healthy development of agricultural insurance in Northeast China.2.During the sample study period,the regional differences in the development of agricultural insurance in Northeast China continued to expand.From the perspective of spatial sources,the differences among provincial administrative regions were the main source of the overall differences,and the differences between Liaoning and eastern Inner Mongolia were the largest.From the perspective of the source of the index composition,the regional differences of“demand scale”and“agriculture security”contributed more to the overall regional differences,while“institutional sustainability”inhibited the expansion of the overall regional

关 键 词：农业保险 东北地区 地区差异 地理探测器 

分 类 号：F840.66[经济管理—保险]