中国商品进口增长动力:多域分解与因素识别——兼论中国“对外市场提供者”角色  

The Multi-domain Decomposition and Factor Identification of China's Import Growth Dynamics:Also Discussing China's Role as a"External Market Provider"

作　　者：李诚 张军[1] 冯宗宪[1] LI Cheng;ZHANG Jun;FENG Zongxian

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,西安710061

出　　处：《亚太经济》2024年第5期140-156,共17页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“基于低碳绿色发展的‘一带一路’区域产业链研究”(19AJY001);陕西省重大现实问题研究项目“陕西自贸试验区对标CPTPP等国际贸易规则,打造内陆改革开放高地政策研究”(2020ZDWT19)。

摘　　要：刻画了中美2001—2022年“对外市场提供者”的地位波动,基于CMS模型与引力模型分解并识别了中国进口增长的驱动因素。研究表明:加入WTO后中国进口规模与份额双增,中美对全球商品的市场提供份额差距缩小且存在结构性差异;国际性需求扩张主导了中国进口增长,市场提供效应的促增效果先升后降,体现出中国进口在产品和国别结构上对世界需求的自主性偏离;中国“主动扩大进口”战略的推进提升了对“一带一路”沿线的进口增幅,降低了对日韩、德美等国的进口依赖;来源国的经济规模、资源禀赋、与华技术差距、对华市场非对称依赖度的提升等显著促进了中国从其进口。中国可从进口来源多元化、主导新兴经济体大市场构建、积极对接CPTPP和NAFTA等方面促进国内超大规模市场的高质量共享。Depicting the fluctuation of China's and USA's statuses as"external market providers"from 2001 to 2022,this paper conducts dynamic factor of China's import growth based on the CMS Model and Gravity Model.Research shows that after China's accession to the WTO,both the scale of imports and the market share provided by China have increased and the gap between China and the USA in terms of import share of global merchandise has narrowed with structural differences;The international demand expansion has led to the growth of China's imports and the market-providing effect has first increased and then decreased,reflecting the autonomous deviation of China's imports from world demand in terms of product and country structure;The promotion of China's"Actively Expanding Imports"strategy has increased the import growth of countries along the"the Belt and Road",reducing their dependence on Japan,Republic of Korea,Germany and the USA;Factors such as the economic scale,resource endowment,technological gap,and increasing asymmetric dependence on Chinese market significantly promote China's imports.

关 键 词：进口增长动力 主动扩大进口 “对外市场提供者” CMS模型 引力模型 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]