两岸数字贸易发展特征及驱动因素分析  

Development Characteristics and Driving Factors of Cross-Straits Digital Trade

作　　者：李月[1] 王飞[2,3] LI Yue;WANG Fei

机构地区：[1]南开大学台湾经济研究所,天津300071 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071 [3]喀什大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《亚太经济》2024年第5期157-173,共17页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：2023年度自治区高校基本科研业务费科研项目“推动新疆数字经济高质量发展的机理与对策研究”(XJEDU2023P110);国家民委“一带一路”国别和区域研究中心“中巴经济走廊研究中心”高质量发展课题“中巴数字经济与实体经济深度融合发展研究”(ZBJJZL2023B06);南开大学亚洲研究中心资助项目“新格局下两岸产业融合高质量发展研究”(AS2222)。

摘　　要：基于2011—2021年两岸数字贸易数据探究其发展特征,并运用CMS模型解构分析其驱动因素。总体而言,两岸数字贸易规模持续增长,表现出较强的发展韧性和抗冲击能力。合作方面,两岸数字贸易依存度具有较高的不对称性,台湾地区对内地的数字贸易依赖度较高且呈现不断上升的趋势。竞争方面,两岸数字贸易的整体竞争力水平不断提升,但在国际市场的竞争优势均较弱,且双方在全球主要市场竞争激烈。驱动因素方面,竞争力效应是内地对台湾地区数字贸易出口增长的主要驱动因素,且其综合竞争力效应的贡献度高于产品竞争力效应;结构效应是台湾地区对内地数字贸易出口增长的主要驱动因素,且其增长效应的贡献度高于产品结构效应。This article bases on the 2011-2021 cross-Straits digital trade data to explore the development characteristics of cross-Straits digital trade and uses the CMS model to deconstruct and analyze the driving factors of cross-Straits digital trade.The results show that overall,the scale of digital trade between the two sides of the Taiwan region Straits continues keep growing,demonstrating stronger development resilience and resistance to shocks;In terms of cooperation,the digital trade dependence between the two sides of the Taiwan region Straits is highly asymmetric and the digital trade dependence of the Taiwan region region on the China' Mainland is high with a rising trend;In terms of competition,the overall competitiveness level of cross-Straits digital trade continues to improve,but its competitive advantage in the international market is weak,and both sides compete fiercely in major global markets;In terms of driving factors,the competitiveness effect is the main driving factor for the growth of digital trade exports from China' Mainland to Taiwan region region,and the contribution of the comprehensive competitiveness effect is higher than the product competitiveness effect;The structural effect is the main driving factor for the growth of digital trade exports from Taiwan region region to China' Mainland and the contribution of the growth effect is higher than the product structure effect.

关 键 词：两岸经济关系 数字贸易 发展特征 CMS模型 

分 类 号：F114[经济管理—国际贸易]