Seismic Risk Model for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,China:Considering Epistemic Uncertainty from the Seismic Hazard Models  

作　　者：Jian Ma Katsuichiro Goda Kai Liu Silva Vitor Anirudh Rao Ming Wang 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Mitigation,Ministry of Emergency Management,Harbin,150080,China [2]School of National Safety and Emergency Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing,100875,China [3]Department of Earth Sciences,Western University,London,N6A 5B7,Canada [4]Global Earthquake Model Foundation,27100,Pavia,Italy [5]Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Urban Disasters Digital Twin,Shenzhen,518023,China

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》2024年第3期434-452,共19页国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：The financial support received from the Scientific Research Fund of Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration(Grant No.2023B09);National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFC3004404);Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(ZDSYS20210929115800001)are gratefully acknowledged。

摘　　要：This study presents a probabilistic seismic risk model for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China.The model comprises a township-level residential building exposure model,a vulnerability model derived from the Chinese building taxonomy,and a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model.The three components are integrated by a stochastic event-based method of the OpenQuake engine to assess the regional seismic risk in terms of average annual loss and exceedance probability curve at the city,province,and regional levels.The novelty and uniqueness of this study are that a probabilistic seismic risk model for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China is developed by considering the impact of site conditions and epistemic uncertainty from the seismic hazard model.

关 键 词：Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region Epistemic uncertainty Seismic risk assessment Seismic risk model 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]