1980—2022年青海地区气候变化时空分布特征及对农牧业生产的影响  

Spatio-temporal Distribution Characteristics of Climate Change and Its Impact on Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Qinghai Province from 1980 To 2022

作　　者：雷有宏 雷占娇 张莹 马宁 虎文娟 任得萍 LEI Youhong;LEI Zhanjiao;ZHANG Ying;MA Ning;HU Wenjuan;REN Deping(Meteorological Bureau of Qilian County,Qinghai Province,Qilian,Qinghai 810499;Meteorological Bureau of Mangya City,Mangya,Qinghai 817099;Meteorological Bureau of Menyuan County,Qinghai Province,Menyuan,Qinghai 810399;Haibei Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai Province,Haibei,Qinghai 810299)

机构地区：[1]青海省祁连县气象局,青海祁连810499 [2]茫崖市气象局,青海茫崖817099 [3]门源县气象局,青海门源810399 [4]青海省海北州气象局,青海海北810299

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2024年第29期87-95,共9页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

摘　　要：为探究青海高原地区气候变化规律及对农牧业生产的影响,本研究基于1980—2022年青海境内39个气象站的气温、降水资料及门源农业气象站所观测的青稞产量,采用线性趋势分析法、Pearson相关系数法等方法,研究分析青海地区气温、降水时空分布的规律及对农牧业生产的影响。研究表明,在过去43 a间,青海平均气温以0.47℃/(10a)的速率呈现上升趋势,20世纪80—90年代气温偏低,1998年是气温回升的转折点;气温在空间上分布不均匀,整体表现为东部最高、西南和西北次高、中部和东南部最低的空间分布格局;气温增幅与海拔高度有关,海拔越高,升温速率相对较大,反之则愈小。降水量主体呈现增加的趋势,变化趋势为11.5 mm/(10a),降水量年际波动较大,增加和减少交替出现,但无明显的规律性;20世纪80年代增幅较小,90年代增幅为负值,21世纪10年代降水量出现较大回升趋势;降水量在空间上表现出分布不均匀的特点,总体表现出从东南向西北逐级减少的分布格局;另外,在农牧业生产中,水热条件是不可缺少的因子,特别是在农作物生长季,水热条件相辅相成,缺一不可,增温增湿的气候变化,对农牧业生产利大于弊。To explore the rules of climate change in the Qinghai Plateau Region and its impact on agricultural and animal husbandry production,based on the temperature and precipitation data of 39 meteorological stations in Qinghai and the highland barley yield observed by Menyuan Agricultural Meteorological Station from 1980 to 2022,the linear trend analysis method and Pearson correlation coefficient method were adopted,the rules of spatial and temporal distribution of air temperature and precipitation in Qinghai Region and its impact on agricultural and animal husbandry production were studied and analyzed.Research showed that the average air temperature in the whole province increased at a rate of 0.47℃/(10a)in the last 43 years.The air temperature was relatively low from the 1980s to the 1990s.In 1998,the air temperature started to increase;the spatial distribution of the air temperature was uneven,it was the highest in the east,followed by that in the southwest and northwest,and that in the central region and southeast was the lowest;and the increase of air temperature was related to altitude.The higher the altitude is,the higher the increase rate of the air temperature is,and vice versa.The precipitation had a trend of increase,the changing trend was 11.5mm·(10a)-1,the annual fluctuation of precipitation was relatively large,and increase and decrease alternated,but there was no obvious rule;the increase rate was relatively low in the 1980s,that in the 1990s was negative,and precipitation in the 2010s increased greatly;and the precipitation was characterized by uneven spatial distribution and it decreased level by level from southeast to northwest.Besides,water and heat conditions are indispensable in agricultural and animal husbandry production.Especially in the growing season of crops,water and heat conditions complement each other and are indispensable.Climate change of increase of air temperature and humidity has more advantages than disadvantages to agricultural and animal husbandry production.

关 键 词：青海高原 气候变化 气温 降水 时空分布特征 农牧业 影响 气温上升趋势 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]