基于Maxent的吐哈盆地枣适生区预测  

Prediction of Potential Suitable Area of Ziziphus jujube in Tuha Basin Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：杨佳鑫 刘立强[1] 周伟权 张迎春 刘嫒 秦伟[1] YANG Jiaxin;LIU Liqiang;ZHOU Weiquan;ZHANG Yingchun;LIU Ai;QIN Wei(College of Horticulture,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052;Technology Promotion Center of Hami City Fruit Industry,Hami,Xinjiang 839000)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学园艺学院,乌鲁木齐830052 [2]哈密市林果业技术推广中心,新疆哈密839000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2024年第28期119-125,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：科技部项目“第三次新疆综合科学考察”下属课题“吐哈盆地植物多样性与特色经济林果资源调查”(2022xjkk1201);自治区“天山英才”培养计划-“三农”骨干人才-现代农牧业发展高层次人才“果树种质资源与高效栽培研究”(2023SNGGGCC012);自治区重大科技专项“红枣加工专用品种引育优选与区域布局研究”(2023A02010-1)。

摘　　要：以吐哈盆地特色果树枣树为研究对象,基于其地理分布情况和环境变量,使用Maxent构建模型并运用ArcGIS软件预测果树的地理分布格局,结合生产现状,研究其在当下和未来气候条件下的潜在适生区,以期为吐哈盆地特色果树产业发展规划的制定和区域化发展的安排提供科学依据。基于当下气候条件和未来气候的模型预测指出,吐哈盆地不适枣种植的地区多为山地或高海拔区域,通过和地形图的对比发现,该作物的适生区主要集中于低海拔以及山地向平原和盆地过渡的区域;在预测模型中,海拔是重要环境因子,对作物的分布概率有较大的影响。This research is focused on the distribution of Ziziphus jujube in Tuha Basin.Based on the geographical distribution and environmental variables,Maxent was used to construct a model and ArcGIS software was used to predict the geographical distribution pattern of Z.jujube,and their potential suitable areas under current and future climate conditions were studied in combination with the current production status.In order to provide scientific basis for the development planning and regional development arrangement of Z.jujube industry in Tuha Basin,various degrees of suitable areas were divided according to the suitability index generated by Maxent model.According to the model prediction based on the current and future climate conditions,the areas unsuitable for planting Z.jujube in Tuha Basin would be mostly mountainous or highaltitude areas.The comparison with the topographic map indicated that the suitable areas for Z.jujube were mainly concentrated in the low-altitude and the transition areas from mountains to plains and basins.In the prediction models,elevation could be admitted as an important environmental factor,which might bring a great influence on the species distribution probability.

关 键 词：适生区 MAXENT 气候变化 吐哈盆地 枣树 物种分布 

分 类 号：S665.1[农业科学—果树学]