计及源荷不确定性的电力系统静态电压稳定极限预警方法研究  

STATIC VOLTAGE STABILITY LIMIT WARNING METHOD FOR POWER SYSTEM ACCOUNTING FOR SOURCE-LOAD UNCERTAINTY

作　　者：任惠[1] 王希[1] 田磊 赵明君 常喜强 甄钊[1] Ren Hui;Wang Xi;Tian Lei;Zhao Mingjun;Chang Xiqiang;Zhen Zhao(College of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China;State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi 830018,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,保定071003 [2]国网新疆电力有限公司,乌鲁木齐830018

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2024年第10期249-258,共10页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金(51107040)。

摘　　要：针对源荷双侧不确定性问题,对电力系统静态电压稳定极限进行预警研究。首先通过数学推导与理论分析证明快慢系统在分叉及噪声双重诱导发生临界转变的过程中,系统变量的方差系数趋势变化显著。由于存在噪声诱导失稳,电压变化趋势观测难度增大,固定阈值趋势检测方法会失效。其次,对新能源电力系统节点电压的临界转变特点和扰动情况进行分析,提出基于临界转变电压崩溃预警方法。针对噪声导致的趋势预测困难问题,基于量测数据,利用贝叶斯变点检测,对节点电压的方差进行实时监测,并根据贝叶斯变点检测得到的概率在趋势发生显著变化之初预警节点电压崩溃,并通过仿真计算验证该方法的有效性。Aiming at the uncertainty on both source and load sides,the study performs the early warning of power system static voltage instability.The study first demonstrates mathematical derivation and theoretical analysis that the trend of variance coefficients of system variables changes significantly during the critical transition occurring in fast and slow systems with bifurcation and noise dual induced.Considering the noise-induced instability,the trend is more difficult to be observed and the trend detection based on fixed threshold will fail.Secondly,the critical transition characteristics and perturbation of the node voltage of the new energy power system are analyzed,and the early warning method based on the critical transition voltage collapse is proposed.For the problem of difficult trend prediction caused by noise,based on the measurement data,Bayesian change point detection is utilized to monitor the variance of the node voltage in real time,and the probability obtained from Bayesian change point detection is used to warn of the node voltage collapse at the beginning of the significant change of the trend,and the validity of the method is verified through simulation calculation.

关 键 词：不确定性分析 可再生能源 电压测量 临界转变 电力系统稳定 预警系统 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]