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作 者:郭燕 杜志雄[1,2] GUO Yan;DU Zhixiong(College of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488;Rural Development Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)
机构地区:[1]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京102488 [2]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732
出 处:《西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2024年第6期96-106,共11页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition)
基 金:国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA054)。
摘 要:科学评估气候变化对作物播种面积的影响,对深入理解气候变化与农业生产关系,制定有针对性应对气候变化的战略具有重要意义。基于1980-2020年省级面板数据,以小麦、稻谷、玉米与青饲料作物总播种面积变化为例,将标准化后的≥10℃积温与生长期降水量作为刻画气候变化的核心指标,采用双向固定效应模型,评估省域地理单元气候变化对农作物播种面积的影响,并重点分析该影响的异质性。结果显示,标准化积温上升对作物播种面积具有抑制的趋势,而标准化降水增加对播种面积有促进作用。异质性分析表明,作物播种面积对气候变化的响应在不同积温地区、不同年降水量地区、不同作物与不同灌溉水平地区存在差异。基于此,为保障粮食安全,应积极推进高标准农田建设,加大农业科技研发,优化种植面积结构,加强气候服务建设工作。Scientific assessment of the impact of climate change on crop sown area is vital for in-depth understanding of the relationship between climate change and agricultural production and for formulating targeted strategies to cope with climate change.Based on provincial panel data from 1980 to 2020,taking the change in the total sown area of wheat,rice,maize,and green fodder crops as an example,the standardized≥10℃cumulative temperature and growing season precipitation are used as the core indicators to portray climate change.A two-way fixed effects model is used to assess the impacts of climate change in the provincial geographic units on the sown area of crops,with a focus on analyzing the heterogeneity of such impacts.The results show that an increase in standardized cumulative temperature tends to inhibit the sown area of crops,while an increase in standardized precipitation shows a promoting effect on the sown area.Heterogeneity analysis showed that the response of crop sown area to climate change varied among regions with different temperature accumulation,annual precipitation,crops,and irrigation levels.Based on this,in order to guarantee food security,it is necessary to promote the construction of high-standard farmland,increase the research and development of agricultural science and technology,optimize the structure of planting areas,strengthen the work of climate service construction,and enhance the ability of each region to adapt to climate change.
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