人口新常态下我国需求结构转型研究  

On the Transformation of Demand Structure in the Demographic New Normal of China

作　　者：左学金 ZUo Xue-jin

机构地区：[1]南通大学商学院 [2]上海社会科学院

出　　处：《南通大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第5期45-60,159,共17页Journal of Nantong University:Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“以深化改革促进全体人民共同富裕研究”(22ZDA030)。

摘　　要：投资与出口超强、消费较弱是长期以来我国需求结构的一个显著特点。超低生育率、人口负增长和老龄化的变动趋势已经并将继续对“两强一弱”的需求结构特点产生影响。为缓解目前有效需求不足、破除部分行业产能过剩对经济增长的制约,迫切需要加快我国需求结构转型,减少对物质资本的边际回报较低的投资,而将更多的资源用于扩大国内消费需求,尤其是边际回报较高的人力资本投资或相关消费。建议采取切实有效的政策举措,落实中央提出的“努力提高居民收入在国民收入分配中的比重,提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重”,同时加大公共财政对教育、医疗卫生与基本社会保障的投入,从而增强居民的消费能力,减轻居民消费的后顾之忧,提高居民的消费倾向。这些做法在中短期可以促进经济增长,在长期可以促进我国人口的高质量发展和增强我国未来经济增长潜力。The structure of demand in China has long been characterized by strong investment and exports but weak consumption.The trends of ultra-low fertility rates,negative population growth,and aging will continue to impact this"strong in two,weak in one"demand structure.To alleviate the current lack of effective demand and to remove the constraints that excess capacity in certain industries poses on economic growth,there is an urgent need to accelerate the transformation of the demand structure.This involves reducing investment in physical capital with low marginal returns and reallocating more resources towards expanding domestic consumption,particularly in human capital investment or related consumption,which offers higher marginal returns.It is recommended to implement effective policy measures,in line with the central government's call to"work towards increasing the proportion of household income in national income distribution,and raising the share of labor compensation in primary distribution."At the same time,public fiscal investment should be increased in education,healthcare,and basic social security to enhance consumer capacity,reduce concerns about consumer spending,and increase the propensity to consume.In the short and medium term,these measures can stimulate economic growth,while in the long term,they can promote high-quality population development and enhance China's future economic growth potential.

关 键 词：人口负增长 老龄化 需求结构 物质资本 人力资本 消费 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济] C924.24[社会学—人口学]