基于贝叶斯时空模型的甘肃省生态风险变化特征  

Change characteristics of ecological risk in Gansu Province based on Bayesian Spatio-temporal Model

作　　者：杨浩 孙建国 黄卓 冯春月 杨维涛 YANG Hao;SUN Jianguo;HUANG Zhuo;FENG Chunyue;YANG Weitao(Faculty of Geomatics,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring,Lanzhou 730070,China;Gansu Provincial Engineering Laboratory for National Geographic State Monitoring,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院,兰州730070 [2]地理国情监测技术应用国家地方联合工程研究中心,兰州730070 [3]甘肃省地理国情监测工程实验室,兰州730070

出　　处：《生态科学》2024年第5期43-51,共9页Ecological Science

基　　金：甘肃省科技计划资助(20YF3GA013);兰州交通大学优秀平台支持(201806)。

摘　　要：生态风险时空特征是科学管控生态风险的重要依据。以往的生态风险变化研究采用的传统时空分析方法没有充分顾及时空相关性。以甘肃省为例,基于生态系统服务价值(ESV)计算1980至2018年生态风险指数(ERI),利用贝叶斯时空模型(BSTM)分析生态风险的演变特征。结果表明:(1)ESV以2000年为界先减后增,草地与林地对ESV的贡献最大。(2)ERI总体趋势特点与ESV一致,2010年后风险上升速率逐渐减缓。(3)ERI空间格局呈“南高北低,中间过渡”的分布特点,热点区域主要分布于陇南、陇东和甘南等部分地区,冷点区域主要集中于河西。(4)ERI局部变化趋势具有明显区域差异,整体表现为以嘉峪关和兰州为中心向四周升高趋势且陇南、陇东等地区变化强于河西,局部变化热点区域主要分布于陇南和陇东等部分地区。The temporal and spatial characteristics of ecological risk are important basis for scientific management and control of ecological risk.In the past,the traditional spatio-temporal analysis method of ecological risk change did not fully consider the spatio-temporal correlation.Taking Gansu Province as an example,the ecological risk index(ERI)was calculated based on ecosystem services value(ESV)from 1980 to 2018,and the evolution characteristics of ecological risk were analyzed using Bayesian Spatio-temporal Model(BSTM).The results showed that:(1)ESV decreased first and then increased with 2000 as the boundary,and grassland and cultivated land contributed the most to ESV.(2)The overall trend of ERI was consistent with that of ESV,and the risk increase rate gradually slowed down after 2010.(3)The spatial pattern of ERI was characterized by"high in the south and low in the north,with a transition in the middle".The hot spots were mainly distributed in some regions of Longnan,Longdong and Gannan,while the cold spots were mainly concentrated in Hexi.(4)There were significant regional differences in the local variation trend of ERI.Overall,the trend of ERI increased around Jiayuguan and Lanzhou as the center,and the variation of ERI in Southern and eastern Gansu was stronger than that in Hexi.The hot spots of local variations were mainly distributed in southern and eastern Gansu.

关 键 词：生态系统服务价值 生态风险 时空变化特征 贝叶斯时空模型 甘肃省 

分 类 号：S157.2[农业科学—土壤学]