江苏省城镇化与低碳发展耦合协调研究  

Study on coupling coordination between urbanization and low-carbon development in Jiangsu province

作　　者：秦琳 汪应宏[2] 郭珊珊 牛潜 彭山桂 邱国强 朱迪 QIN Lin;WANG Yinhong;GUO Shanshan;NIU Qian;PENG Shangui;QIU Guoqiang;ZHU Di(School of Public Administration,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China;Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China;School of Economics and Management,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai’an 271018,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学公共管理学院,徐州221116 [2]中国矿业大学江苏省资源环境信息工程重点实验室,徐州221116 [3]山东农业大学经济管理学院,泰安271018

出　　处：《生态科学》2024年第5期72-80,共9页Ecological Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(42101272);教育部人文社科青年项目(20YJC630110);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX21_2110)。

摘　　要：城镇化与低碳发展间的协调发展是实现区域可持续发展的关键。以江苏省13个地级市为研究对象,通过构建城镇化与低碳发展的评价体系,并运用耦合协调度模型、空间自相关模型剖析江苏省1995—2019年城镇化与低碳发展耦合协调的时空演变和空间集聚特征。结果显示:(1)1995—2019年江苏省城镇化水平稳步提升,区域整体从中度协调迈入高度协调阶段,低碳发展水平逐渐转好,均呈“南高—北低”的空间分布特征。(2)江苏省城镇化与低碳发展的耦合协调度整体呈持续增加趋势,区域整体从中度协调迈入高度协调阶段,低度协调区域变小,高度协调区域明显扩大,高度协调区域呈现从南向北蔓延的趋势,南京、苏州等的苏南区域耦合协调度较高,宿迁等的苏北区域耦合协调度较低。(3)耦合协调度整体表现出空间正相关性,莫兰指数先增大后降低,区域耦合协调度则呈“南热—北冷”的空间分布特征,南部以苏州和常州为核心的热点区域,北部以宿迁为核心的冷点区域。研究结果为江苏省城镇发展政策和低碳发展政策的制定提供科学依据。The coordinated development between urbanization and low-carbon development is the key to achieve regional sustainable development.Taking 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province as the research objects,the evaluation system of urbanization and low-carbon development was constructed.The coupling coordination model and spatial autocorrelation model were used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution and spatial clustering characteristics of coupled coordination between urbanization and low-carbon development in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2019.The results showed that:(1)From 1995 to 2019,the level of urbanization in Jiangsu Province increased steadily,and the overall regional coordination moved from medium to high,and the level of low-carbon development improved gradually.Both of them showed the spatial distribution characteristics of“high in the south and low in the north”.(2)The coupling coordination degree of urbanization and low-carbon development in Jiangsu Province as a whole moved from medium to high degree of coordination with an upward trend.The low-coordination areas were becoming smaller,while the high-coordination areas were expanding significantly.Besides,the high-coordination areas showed a trend of spreading from south to north,with higher coupling coordination degree in the southern region,such as Suzhou,Nanjing and Suzhou,and lower in the northern region,such as Suqian.(3)The overall coupling coordination degree showed positive spatial correlation,and the Moran’s index increased firstly and then decreased.The regional coupling coordination degree showed a the spatial distribution characteristic of“hot in the south and cold in the north”,with Suzhou and Changzhou as the core hot spot area in the south and Suqian as the core cold spot area in the north.The results of the study can provide a scientific basis for the formulation of urban development policies and low-carbon development policies in Jiangsu Province.

关 键 词：城镇化 低碳发展 耦合协调度 空间自相关 江苏省 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]