考虑顽固者影响的群体决策意见协调动力学模型  

Modeling the bigot-influenced collective deliberation dynamics in group decision-making

作　　者：王瑞新 罗双玲[2] 夏昊翔 WANG Ruixin;LUO Shuangling;XIA Haoxiang(School of Economics and Management,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;School of Maritime Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;Business College,Honghe University,Mengzi 661199,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济管理学院,辽宁大连116024 [2]大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院,辽宁大连116026 [3]红河学院商学院,云南蒙自661199

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2024年第6期156-167,共12页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71871042);教育部人文社科规划基金项目(18YJA630118);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L16BTQ003)。

摘　　要：本文基于Török等人针对维基百科编辑所提出的冲突动力学模型,对其泛化构筑针对大群体决策的个体间意见交流与集体议案演化两个过程耦合的群体决策意见协调动力学模型框架,并在此基础上引入顽固者的因素探索具体的意见协调动态机理,分析结果显示了包含顽固者的决策者群体所呈现的丰富系统演化模式。系统的动力学模式主要由参与者对不同意见的宽容度即交流阈值以及决策者群体中顽固者数量、激活率及意见极端度等因素决定。在共识与“间歇冲突”的临界区域,动力学模式随着集体议案的意见初值的变化反复跃迁。Traditional group decision-making studies are commonly based on the assumption that the collective deliberation of the participating decision-makers would ultimately lead to consensus.Although the incorporation with the opinion-dynamic models,which have been extensively investigated in the complex-systems community and indicated that opinion exchange in a collective does not necessarily end up with consensus,have attracted enormous attentions in recent years,the group decision-making theorists place more focus on using the opinion-dynamic models as tools to facilitate consensus reaching,while the researches on the rich dynamics of collective deliberation are insufficient.To address this gap,the present work is a primitive attempt to explore the collective deliberation dynamics in the group decisionmaking setting.A modeling framework for the dynamics of collective deliberation is firstly developed by generalizing the Wikipedia-edit conflict dynamics model proposed by Török and his colleagues.In the proposed modeling framework,the evolution of the group proposal is intertwined with a process of inter-individual opinion exchange,and these two processes constitute the overall collective deliberation process.In such collective deliberation process,the inter-individual opinion exchange does not necessarily lead to the consensus,while the whole decision-making group has to reach an agreed proposal for collective action.In other words,the proposed modeling framework intents to reflect the real-world situation that group decision-making is often the collective decision-making action without the full consensus of all participants.Subsequently,a bigot-influenced model is introduced and analyzed,as a specific case of the proposed modeling framework.In Török and his colleagues′model,consensus can ultimately be reached in a group of fixed participants and the continual renewal of participants becomes the sole source of repetitive controversies.This result contradicts the usual observations,where controversies are more co

关 键 词：群决策 意见动力学 集体商讨 顽固者 

分 类 号：N945[自然科学总论—系统科学] C93[经济管理—管理学]