长序列赤水河赤水段降水趋势变化分析  

Analysis of precipitation trend changes in the Chishui section of the Chishui River over a long period of time

作　　者：安美运 李长江[1] 彭芸 史涵丹 An Meiyun;Li Changjiang

机构地区：[1]贵州省水利科学研究院

出　　处：《生态文明新时代》2024年第3期96-100,共5页The New Era of Ecological Civilization

基　　金：贵州省水利厅科技支撑项目(KT201816、KT202204、KT202319)。

摘　　要：伴随着极端气候的影响,近年来赤水河流域水文要素发生显著变化及区域差异性,为了解和明晰流域区段时间序列下降水变化特征及未来变化趋势,为相关决策提供重要的科学参考依据。文章基于赤水站1962-2015年长序列水文气象资料,采用线性趋势法、滑动检验法、M-K检验法及R/S分析法对贵州赤水河赤水段降水变化规律、突变性及未来变化趋势持续性等进行研究分析。研究结果表明:赤水河赤水段降水呈现不显著下降的趋势,下降速率27.706mm/10a,时间序列内发生2次突变,未来降水量变化趋势将出现反转,呈上升趋势,且反持续性较强。Carrying out research on beneficial operation and scheduling is to ensure the safety of reservoirs,effectively store and release natural runoff,realize comprehensive utilization of water resources,meet the needs of the national economy,and meet the requirements of sustainable economic and social development and harmonious coexistence between human beings and nature.Taking Huaxi Reservoir as an example,this paper studies the scientificity of the beneficial operation and scheduling plan of the reservoir,aiming to achieve reasonable operation and scheduling,ensure safety,achieve comprehensive benefits,promote reasonable allocation and sustainable utilization of water resources,and promote sustainable development of society and economy.

关 键 词：赤水河 降水量 趋势分析 M-K检验 R/S分析 

分 类 号：P33[天文地球—水文科学]