龙羊峡冷水鱼养殖气象服务效益评估  

Evaluation of Meteorological Service Benefits for Cold Water Fish Farming in Longyangxia

作　　者：王宛青 杨发源[1] 钟元龙[1] Wang Wanqing;Yang Fayuan;Zhong Yuanlong(Hainan Prefecture Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai Province,Gonghe 813099,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省海南州气象局,共和813099

出　　处：《青海科技》2024年第4期144-151,共8页Qinghai Science and Technology

基　　金：海南藏族自治州科技局科技特派员创新创业计划项目“龙羊峡冷水鱼养殖气象服务效益评估”(2023-KT04-A)。

摘　　要：针对冷水鱼养殖中的气象服务,效益的评估是判断预报能力的技术之一。为提高冷水鱼养殖业的生产效益和应对气象灾害的能力,以龙羊峡冷水养殖为研究对象,提出冷水鱼养殖气象服务效益评估方法,综合分析冷水鱼养殖区域实际情况与气象服务关键影响因素,从气象服务质量与气象服务绩效两方面出发,选取气象数据准确性以及冷水鱼养殖产量增减等8个评估指标,构建冷水鱼养殖气象服务效益评估指标体系。利用属性层次分析模型计算评估指标权重,采用逆推法构建效益评估模型,并确定无法避免损失因子、气象服务质量和绩效指标参数,获取气象服务效益评估值。结果显示该方法能够有效计算出气象服务效益评估结果,得出冷水鱼养殖业的投入产出比,在冷水鱼养殖中具有一定的实用价值。For meteorological services in cold-water fish farming,the evaluation of benefits is one of the techniques for judging forecasting capabilities.In order to improve the production efficiency of cold-water fish aquaculture and the ability to cope with meteorological disasters,taking the cold-water aquaculture in Longyangxia as the research object,this paper proposes an evaluation method for the benefit of meteorological services for coldwater fish farming,comprehensively analyzes the actual situation of the cold-water fish aquaculture area and the key influencing factors of meteorological services,selects eight evaluation indicators such as the accuracy of meteorological data and the increase and decrease of cold-water fish aquaculture production from the aspects of meteorological service quality and meteorological service performance,and constructs an evaluation index system for the benefit of meteorological services for cold-water fish farming.The attribute analytic hierarchy process model was used to calculate the weight of the evaluation index,and the benefit evaluation model was constructed by the reverse extrapolation method,and the unavoidable loss factors,meteorological service quality and performance index parameters were determined,and the evaluation value of meteorological service benefit was obtained.The results show that this method can effectively calculate the results of meteorological service benefit evaluation and obtain the input-output ratio of cold-water fish aquaculture,which has certain practical value in cold-water fish aquaculture.

关 键 词：冷水鱼养殖 气象服务效益 评估指标体系 属性层次分析 逆推法 损失因子 

分 类 号：S915[农业科学—水产科学]