基于耦合协调性的区域洪水资源利用评价  

Evaluation of regional floodwater resource utilization based on coupling coordination

作　　者：周莹 方红远[1] 陆泰戈 刘楠楠 ZHOU Ying;FANG Hongyuan;LU Taige;LIU Nannan(College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225009,China)

机构地区：[1]扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏扬州225009

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2024年第5期884-895,共12页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52379027);江苏省水利科技项目(2021050)。

摘　　要：为全面理解和优化区域水资源利用格局、提高区域水资源利用率,以南水北调东线工程江苏段主要涉及的徐州、宿迁、淮安3个城市为研究对象,以2010-2022年数据为基础从基于洪水资源开发利用的水资源利用、经济社会发展、生态环境保护3个维度,采用共23项指标在使用熵权法确定权重的基础上,构建基于洪水资源开发利用的水资源利用-经济社会-生态环境系统容量耦合协调发展模型,并结合匹配度模型进行比较分析,运用障碍度模型分析影响耦合协调发展的因素。结果表明:3个城市的综合系统发展水平均由初级阶段上升到良好阶段。徐州、宿迁和淮安市的耦合协调度变化分别为勉强协调到良好协调、初级协调到良好协调以及初级协调到中级协调,而3个城市耦合协调度在后期均超越匹配度,达到理想协调状态。影响协调度的主要障碍因子为洪水资源利用潜力、森林覆盖率以及洪水资源量,且对于3个系统的障碍度分析,3个城市各自有不同的主导影响因素,徐州市复合系统耦合协调度主要受水资源利用影响较大,宿迁市受经济社会影响较大,而淮安市则受生态环境影响较大,因此,各市应当合理利用水库及蓄滞洪区的削峰、调蓄能力,增加洪水资源可利用量,提高洪水资源利用效率,降低洪灾发生频率,在保证经济和生态用水效率的同时,减少因洪灾带来的经济及生态损失。The study was undertaken to gain a profound comprehension and optimize the patterns of regional water resource utilization,with a strong emphasis on efficiency,focusing particularly on Xuzhou,Suqian,and Huaian,the pivotal beneficiaries of the Jiangsu segment of the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project.Recognizing the indispensable role of water resources in fueling socioeconomic development and safeguarding ecological integrity,a comprehensive analysis was conducted to explore the intricate interplay between these facets.The objective was to ensure sustainable utilization of water resources while promoting balanced socioeconomic growth and protecting the delicate ecological balance in these regions.A multifaceted analytical framework was devised to examine the coupling and coordinated development among the water resource utilization,socioeconomic development,and ecological environment protection systems.This model encompassed a broad range of 23 carefully selected indicators,distributed across three core dimensions.The methodology entailed the application of the entropy weight method to objectively and precisely determine the weights of these indicators,thereby enhancing the robustness of the analysis.Subsequently,the constructed model was benchmarked against a matching degree model,and an obstacle degree model was employed to meticulously identify and analyze the factors that potentially hindered the desired levels of coupling and coordination.This rigorous approach aimed to uncover insights into the complex dynamics of the integrated system and to pinpoint areas requiring targeted interventions.The study revealed marked advancements in the overall development levels of the integrated systems in Xuzhou,Suqian,and Huaian,showcasing a discernible transition from nascent to advanced stages.Specifically,their coupling coordination degrees underwent notable transformations:Xuzhou progressed from a state of barely coordinated to well-coordinated,Suqian experienced a leap from primary coordinatio

关 键 词：洪水资源利用 耦合协调发展 评价模型 南水北调东线工程江苏段 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]