城市综合防灾疏散体系风险评估及优化策略  

Risk assessment and optimization strategy of urban comprehensive disaster prevention and evacuation system

作　　者：曹攀 陈青长 Cao Pan;Chen Qingchang(School of Urban Architecture and Safety Engineering,Shanghai Institute of Technology,Shanghai 201418,China)

机构地区：[1]上海应用技术大学城市建筑与安全工程学院,上海201418

出　　处：《山西建筑》2024年第22期33-38,77,共7页Shanxi Architecture

基　　金：上海市教育科学研究项目:城市元宇宙下的应用型本科数字场景设计实践教学评价体系研究(C2023104)。

摘　　要：应急管理部成立后,我国应急管理体系建设得到长足发展,“十四五”规划中,城市综合防灾减灾被放在举足轻重的地位。在国土韧性格局的背景下,从灾害链的视角出发,运用自然灾害风险指数法,并通过灰色关联度分析法与熵权法结合,构建城市综合防灾疏散体系风险评估模型。选取上海市临港新片区进行实证研究,以台风灾害及其灾害链为例,通过数据的选取和分析,运用城市综合防灾疏散体系风险评估模型进行叠加运算与可视化,得出其综合防灾疏散体系的风险评估结果,并从国土韧性灾害治理、城乡统筹、综合防灾体系建设三方面提出优化策略。After the establishment of the Ministry of Emergency Management,the construction of China’s emergency management system has been greatly developed,and in the“14th Five-Year Plan”,the comprehensive urban disaster prevention and evacuation has been put in a pivotal position.In the context of national resilience pattern,this paper starts from the perspective of disaster chain,applies the natural disaster risk index method,constructs a three-level index evaluation system that includes the risk of disaster-causing factors,the exposure of disaster-bearing bodies,the vulnerability of disaster-bearing environment,and the ability of safe evacuation,and builds a risk assessment model of urban comprehensive disaster prevention and evacuation system by combining the gray correlation analysis method and entropy weight method.Shanghai Lingang New Area is selected for empirical study,taking typhoon disaster and its disaster chain as an example,and through data selection and analysis,the risk assessment model of urban comprehensive disaster prevention and evacuation system is superimposed and visualized to derive the risk assessment results of its comprehensive disaster prevention and evacuation system,and optimization strategies are proposed in terms of the basic factors,management factors,and technical factors.

关 键 词：国土韧性 综合防灾 疏散体系 灾害风险评估 临港新片区 

分 类 号：TU984.1[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]