当前应坚定实行扩张性宏观经济政策  

Overcapacity and the Need for a More Expansionary Macroevonomic Policy

作　　者：余永定[1] YU Yongding(Institute of World Economics and Policies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《管理现代化》2024年第5期1-8,共8页Modernization of Management

摘　　要：GDP增速面临下行压力和物价水平持续处于低位,本应促使决策者采取扩张性财政货币政策以刺激有效需求,但在许多行业存在“产能过剩”的情况下,消除“过剩产能”成为宏观经济政策的突出目标。实际上,宏观层面的“产能过剩”和有效需求不足是等价概念,即便考虑产业层面的结构失衡,政府在决定是否应该实行扩张性宏观经济政策时,依然应该看通胀和经济增速变化,而不应该受“产能过剩”的干扰。当前,中国经济既面临周期性问题,也存在结构性矛盾,实行扩张性宏观经济政策同结构性改革并不矛盾,而是相辅相成。目前来看,2024年实现GDP增长5%左右的目标面临较大挑战,为完成全年经济社会发展目标任务,应实行更具扩张性的财政货币政策,特别是财政政策。The downward pressure on GDP growth rate and the sustained low price level should have prompted decision-makers to adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate effective demand.However,in the case of overcapacity in many industries,eliminating"excess capacity"has become the main goal of macroeconomic policies.In fact,the concepts of"overcapacity"and insufficient effective demand at the macro level are equivalent.Even considering the structural imbalance at the industrial level,the government should still consider changes in inflation and economic growth when deciding whether to implement expansionary macroeconomic policies,rather than being distracted by the issue of"overcapacity".Currently,the Chinese economy is facing both cyclical and structural problems.Implementing expansionary macroeconomic policies and structural reforms are not contradictory,but complementary.At present,achieving the target of GDP growth of around 5%by 2024 faces significant challenges.To achieve the annual economic and social development goals,more expansionary fiscal and monetary policies,especially fiscal policy,should be implemented.

关 键 词：产能过剩 供求缺口 投入—产出分析 扩张性政策 

分 类 号：F832.1[经济管理—金融学]