去美元化新趋势:成效与未来  

New Trends of De-dollarization:Effectiveness and Prospects

作　　者：张发林 杨雨培 Zhang Falin;Yang Yupei

机构地区：[1]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院 [2]南开大学丝绸之路研究中心

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2024年第10期46-69,134,135,共26页

摘　　要：在大变局时期,去美元化浪潮再现,显示出了较历史浪潮所不同的新趋势。去美元化可从国际货币功能和主体行为选择两个维度进行分析。市场驱动的去美元化程度整体较低,美元仍是国际市场的首选货币。政府主导成为去美元化的主动力,具体表现在政府立场、国家政策和政策实践三个方面。大变局时期的去美元化可以总结为三大趋势:主体的集团化、手段的数字化和对象的基础设施化。但新趋势下去美元化的成效尚不显著,主要原因是使用者去美元化态度与行为的不一致、美元体系的网络外部性和美元使用的路径依赖、美元发行者的霸权护持。美元的国内经济基础、治理基础和权力基础的变化将决定去美元化的未来态势。在外部去美元化新趋势和内部基础变化新态势的双重因素影响下,美元霸权将面临前所未有的新挑战,国际货币体系的稳定和国际金融安全由此成为亟需关注的核心议题。During the period of great transformation,the wave of de-dollarization has re-emerged,exhibiting new trends that differ from previous movements.De-dollarization can be analyzed from two dimensions:the functions of international currency and the behavioral choices of actors.The market-driven degree of de-dollarization remains relatively low,with the US dollar still being the preferred currency in international markets.Government-led de-dollarization has become the primary driving force,specifically manifested in government positions,national policies,and policy practices.By analyzing de-dollarization from the perspectives of actors,means,and targets,three new trends have emerged during this period of transformation:the group-based nature of actors,the digitalization of means,and the infrastructure-based nature of targets.However,the effectiveness of de-dollarization under these new trends remains limited.The main reasons include the inconsistency between the attitudes and behaviors of users regarding de-dollarization,the network externalities of the US dollar system,the path dependency of US dollar usage,and the hegemonic maintenance by the US dollar issuer.Changes in the domestic economic,governance,and power bases supporting the US dollar will determine the future trajectory of de-dollarization.Under the dual influence of the new external trends in de-dollarization and the evolving internal foundations of the dollar,dollar hegemony will face unprecedented challenges,making the stability of the international monetary system and international financial security critical issues.

关 键 词：去美元化 国际货币体系 美元体系 国际金融安全 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学] F113