关于重塑两岸经贸关系的若干思考  

Some Reflections on Reshaping the Cross-Strait Economic and Trade Relations

作　　者：殷存毅[1] Yin Chunyi(Insitude of Taiwan Studies,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]清华大学台湾研究院

出　　处：《台海研究》2024年第3期1-11,共11页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

摘　　要：自1980年代末开始的两岸经贸交流与互动具有特定的时代背景。其中重要影响因素犹如“三驾马车”催生和推动了两岸经贸的快速发展,即1.和平发展的时代潮流和中国的改革开放,使两岸经贸的互补性得以“兑现”;2.幸逢IT技术产业时代的兴起,形成了两岸以电子技术和产业为主的经贸交流与合作;3.经济全球化,使要素资源得以自由流动和生产分工全球化,其中国际跨国公司的“生产外包”形成一种“订单机制”,极大地推动了两岸投资和贸易迅速增长。然而,经贸环境是一种动态演变的状态,进入本世纪的第二个十年以来,地缘政治格局的巨变给“和平与发展”造成了非常不确定的预期,使得经济全球化遭受重创,数字经济时代和AI产业技术革命的出现,对既有的生产经营模式产生了结构性的挑战。与此同时,中国内地经济和产业的崛起也正在改变两岸经贸发展的主导因素。显然,影响两岸经贸关系的“三驾马车”已经“抛锚”,其深刻影响不仅是导致目前投资和贸易增长下降或减缓,更为重要的是带来结构性挑战和变革的需求。面对挑战和变革,既有“三驾马车”不足以推动两岸经贸继续发展,两岸经贸需要转换新动能,中国内地的发展大局将为两岸经贸关系注入新活力。因此,建构以市场经济为基础、以数字技术为动能和以产业融合发展为路径依赖的两岸经贸高质量发展模式,成为因应时代变迁的必然选择。The economic interactions and exchanges across the Strait since the late 1980s are situated within a distinct historical context.Among them,important influencing factors,such as the“Troika”,have given birth to and promoted the rapid development of the cross-Strait economic and trade.First,China's peaceful development and opening-up have enabled the complementarity of cross-strait trade to be“realized”.Second,the rising era of the IT technology industry has led to economic exchanges and cooperation focusing on electronic technology and industry across the Strait.Third,economic globalization has enabled the free flow of factor resources and the globalization of production division of labor,among which the“production outsourcing”of international multinational corporations has formed an“order mechanism”,which has greatly promoted the rapid growth of the investment and trade across the Strait.However,the economic and trade environment is in a state of dynamic evolution.After the second decade of this century,the dramatic changes in the geopolitical landscape created a very uncertain expectation for“peace and development,”giving economic globalization a major blow.The digital economy era and AI industry's technological revolution have structurally challenged the existing production and business model.At the same time,the rise of Chinese mainland's economy and industry is also changing the leading factors in cross-Strait economy and trade.Obviously,the“Troika”that affects the economic and trade relations across the Strait has“broken down”,which is not only seen in investment and trade growth decline,but more importantly,in the structural challenges and demands for change,which indicate that the existing“Troika”is insufficient to sustain the ongoing economic and trade development across the Strait.Therefore,cross-Strait economic ties need to be transformed with new impetus and vitality,which is also a matter of great concern for China's overall development.It has become imperative to estab

关 键 词：地缘政治 两岸经贸 融合发展 

分 类 号：D618[政治法律—政治学] D675.8[政治法律—中外政治制度] F124[经济管理—世界经济]