2024台湾地区选举民调准确性与误差研究——以TVBS、ETtoday、美丽岛电子报为例  

Precision and Margin of Error in the Polling Data for the 2024 Taiwan region Election:A Case Study on TVBS,ETtoday,and Formosa Electronic News

作　　者：刘志 林常青 Liu Zhi;Lin Changqing(College of Culture and Communication,Putian University;School of Journalism and Communication,Putian University)

机构地区：[1]福建省莆田学院文化与传播学院 [2]福建省莆田学院新闻与传播学院

出　　处：《台海研究》2024年第3期76-84,共9页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

摘　　要：2024年台湾地区领导人选举中众多民调机构发布的民调数据引起关注。本文对此次选举中TVBS、ETtoday、美丽岛电子报三家民调机构的数据进行对比研究,就民调预测的准确性作出评判,并分析形成民调误差的原因。文章采用文献梳理与文本分析相结合的方法,归纳出民调机构的政党倾向、民调方式及其透明度、选民参与度与回应方式作为衡量民调数据准确性的三个指标。研究发现,民调机构的政党倾向对民调数据有隐蔽的影响,虽然调查方式多数相对透明,但仍存在一些短板。手机问卷被证明是更容易为选民所接受且拒访率较低的一种有效的民调方式。In the 2024 Taiwan region leadership election,The polling data from various institutions has garnered significant social attention.This study compares data from three polling institutions,namely TVBS,ETtoday,and Formosa Electronic News,to assess prediction accuracy and analyze the causes of polling errors.By combining literature review with text analysis,the study examines three indicators to measure the accuracy of polling data:the political bias of polling agencies,the methods and transparency of conducting polls,and voter participation and response.The results indicate that the political bias of polling agencies exerts a covert influence on poll data,despite the relatively transparent nature of most survey methods.Nevertheless,certain limitations still persist.Additionally,mobile phone questionnaires have proven to be an effective polling method that is more acceptable to voters and has a lower refusal rate.

关 键 词：2024台湾地区选举 选举民调 选举预测 民调误差 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学]