“大而不倒”幻觉与金字塔控股结构下的“预算软约束”  

The Illusion of“Too Big to Fail”and“Soft Budget Constraint”under the Pyramidal Ownership Structure

作　　者：郑志刚[1] 朱光顺 袁浩洋 郭杰 Zheng Zhigang;Zhu Guangshun;Yuan Haoyang;Guo Jie

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院中国财政金融政策研究中心 [2]对外经济贸易大学中国金融学院,北京市朝阳区100029 [3]中国人民大学财政金融学院 [4]英国杜伦大学

出　　处：《世界经济》2024年第10期152-185,共34页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72403042、72372154);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(24YJC790250);国中国博士后科学基金(2024M750463)的资助。

摘　　要：在非金融企业集团债务暴雷折射出的“大而不倒”现象引发持续关注的背景下,本文构建金字塔控股结构影响企业杠杆率的银行贷款理论模型,使用A股非金融非国有上市公司样本,揭示了金字塔控股结构下的独特“预算软约束”现象及其带来的大而不倒幻觉。随着金字塔结构复杂程度的提高,上市公司杠杆率和过度负债水平显著提高。金字塔结构通过预算软约束下的信贷扭曲膨胀机制发挥作用。金字塔控股结构降低了企业短期风险,但忽视长期风险的累积,这可能是大而不倒幻觉产生的原因。在强制去杠杆期间,金字塔结构企业呈现“缓慢去坏杠杆”的结构性去杠杆现象。本文为理解大而不倒现象提供了新的分析视角,有助于形成对金字塔控股结构潜在经济功能的全面认识。Against the backdrop of continued attention to the“too big to fail”(TBTF)phenomenon reflected by the explosion of debt defaults by non-financial corporate groups,this paper builds a bank loan model of pyramidal structure affecting firm leverage,and empirically reveals the unique phenomenon of budget soft constraint contained in pyramidal structure and the illusion of TBTF by using the sample of A-share non-financial and non-state listed firms.With the increase in pyramidal structural complexity,the leverage ratio and the degree of excessive indebtedness of listed firms increase significantly.The mechanism study finds that the pyramidal structure mainly functions through the credit-distorting inflation mechanism under the soft budget constraint.The pyramidal structure reduces the short-term risk of firms but ignores the accumulation of long-term risk,which may be the cause of the TBTF illusion.During the mandatory deleveraging period,pyramidal-structure firms exhibit a structural deleveraging phenomenon of slow leverage breakdown.This study provides a new analytical perspective to understand the TBTF phenomenon,and helps theoretical scholars to understand the potential functions of pyramidal structures in the economic sphere.

关 键 词：金字塔式控股结构 预算软约束 大而不倒 杠杆率 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F832.51[经济管理—国民经济]