技术变革、生态位构建与地缘政治的演进逻辑  

Technological Change,Niche Construction,and the Evolution of Geopolitical Logic

作　　者：叶成城[1] Ye Chengcheng(the Institute of International Studies,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院国际问题研究所,上海200020

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2024年第10期58-86,161,162,共31页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：2023年度国家社会科学基金重大项目“近现代大国兴衰对中国式现代化的启示研究”(项目批准号:23&ZD038)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：地缘政治学作为一门古老的学科,在因果逻辑分析、学科边界界定和案例研究方法等问题上仍存在部分缺陷。作者试图从演化和生态位构建的视角给出一个新的地缘政治学分析框架,认为地理空间构成行为体间竞争的物理环境,并促使存活的行为体找到与自身地理禀赋相匹配的生态位。尽管地理禀赋在短期内难以改变,但技术变革能够改变社会核心财富的生产方式,从而赋予地理禀赋新的含义。地理禀赋带来的结构性约束与国家的生态位构建行为共同造就了不同时代权力结构的地缘分布。农业时代最核心的资源是农业用地,行为体寻求陆权来控制肥沃的土地以实现财富增长;工业时代最核心的资源是机器和原材料,行为体谋求海权来控制殖民地和海上通道,通过分工和贸易实现财富增长;后工业时代最核心的资源是数字、硬件和算法,行为体谋求数字权力,通过数字化转型赋能传统工业实现财富增长。因此,在新一轮技术革命的浪潮下,中国既要发展新质生产力,积极塑造有利的地缘环境,也要根据生产和技术条件的变化不断调整自身的地缘战略。Geopolitics,despite being an ancient discipline,still has certain shortcomings in terms of causal analysis,definition of academic boundaries,and case study methodologies.This paper seeks to introduce a new analytical framework for geopolitics by adopting an evolutionary and niche construction perspective.It argues that geographic space forms the competitive environment,driving actors to find niches that match their geographic endowments.While geographic endowments are difficult to change in the short term,technological advancements can reshape the production modes of society's core wealth,thereby giving them new significance.The structural constraints imposed by geographical endowments,combined with a nation's niche construction behavior,create the geopolitical distribution of power structures in different eras.In the agricultural era,arable land was the key resource,with actors seeking land power to control fertile territories.In the industrial era,machinery and raw materials were paramount,leading to sea power dominance.In the postindustrial era,digital resources like data and algorithms have become crucial,with digital power driving wealth creation.Faced with new technological revolutions,China must continuously adjust its geopolitical strategy in response to changes in technology and develop new quality productive forces to shape a favorable geopolitical environment.

关 键 词：地缘政治 技术变革 地理禀赋 生态位构建 新质生产力 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]