投资结构优化对中国转型时期经济增长的影响——基于贸易保护主义应对视角  

The Impact of Investment Structure Optimization on China's Economic Growth During the Transition Period:A Perspective on Dealing with Trade Protectionism

作　　者：贺京同[1] 魏哲 汪震 HE Jingtong;WEI Zhe;WANG Zhen(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin,300071)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2024年第4期48-63,共16页China Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(21ZDA037)。

摘　　要：本文基于中国投资效率低下等经济特征,借鉴现有文献构建一个考虑中间品贸易、行业间联系与投资效率的理论模型,研究在贸易保护主义盛行背景下,优化投资结构对中国经济增长的潜在影响。理论研究表明,投资效率低下(与贸易成本增加)会抑制经济增长;而优化投资结构不仅能直接提升一国产出,还能通过降低生产成本、优化产值结构缓解贸易冲击对经济增长的负面影响。应用此分析框架,结合32个国家2000—2014年跨国投入产出数据,本文进行了实证分析,结论表明:无论贸易环境如何改变,优化投资结构均可有效助力中国经济稳定,是缓解当下贸易保护主义的有益举措。This paper,based on economic characteristics such as low investment efficiency in China,draws from existing literature to construct a theoretical model that considers intermediate goods trade,inter-industry linkages,and investment efficiency.It investigates the potential impact of optimizing investment structure on China's economic growth in the context of prevailing trade protectionism.The theoretical research indicates that low investment efficiency(associated with increased trade costs)hinders economic growth.However,optimizing investment structure can not only directly enhance a country's output but also mitigate the negative effects of trade shocks on economic growth by reducing production costs and optimizing value-added structures.Using this analytical framework and combining cross-border input-output data from 32 countries for the period 2000-2014,this paper conducts empirical analysis.The findings suggest that regardless of changes in the trade environment,optimizing investment structure can effectively support the stability of the Chinese economy,making it a beneficial measure for alleviating current trade protectionism.

关 键 词：投资结构 资本配置 对外贸易 经济增长 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]