中国最终需求对拉美经济的拉动效应——基于全球价值链视角  

The Pulling Effect of China’s Final Demand on Latin American Economy——Based on Global Value Chain Perspective

作　　者：寇明栋 张勇[2] KOU Mingdong;ZHANG Yong(School of International Politics and Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102401,China;Institute of Latin American Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100007,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院,北京102401 [2]中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所,北京100007

出　　处：《西南科技大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第5期1-11,共11页Journal of Southwest University of Science and Technology:Philosophy and Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目:内生及外源性危机对拉美国家的影响及其应对机制研究,项目编号:20BGJ073;国家社会科学基金重点项目:双循环新格局下中国与拉丁美洲经贸关系的发展与挑战研究,项目编号:21AGJ013。

摘　　要：新发展格局不是封闭的国内循环,而是开放的国内国际双循环。随着中国与拉美经贸合作跨越式发展,中国对拉美经济的积极影响日益加深。有鉴于此,测度和分析中国最终需求对拉美经济增长的拉动效应对中国构建新发展格局具有现实意义。本文基于全球价值链视角,在世界投入产出模型的基础上,使用OECD世界投入产出数据,测度了全球价值链中中国对拉美经济增长的需求拉动效应。研究认为:第一,1995—2018年,拉动率增长显著,中国最终需求每增长1%对拉美经济增长的拉动率由0.001 4%提升至0.025 3%,提升了17倍,且2018年中国的拉动率在拉美所有外部经济体中仅次于美国;第二,中国对拉美经济增长的拉动率中价值链依存度整体较高,上升趋势明显,在2000年之后始终保持在80%以上;第三,中国最终需求是中国对拉美经济增长拉动效应变化的决定性因素,中国经济增长将通过内循环到外循环有效拉动拉美经济增长。The new development pattern is not a closed domestic circulation,but an open domestic and international dual circulation.With the leapfrog development of economic and trade cooperation between China and Latin America,China’s positive influence on Latin American economy is deepening.In view of this,measuring and analyzing the pull effect of China’s final demand on Latin American economic growth is of practical significance for China to build a new development pattern.Based on the global value chain perspective and the world input-output model,this paper uses the data of the OECD World Input-Output Table to measure the de-mand-pulling effect of China on Latin American economic growth in the global value chain.The study concludes that,first,from 1995 to 2018,China’s demand-pulling rate to the Latin American economy has increased significantly,from 0.0014%to 0.0253%per 1%of economic growth,an 17-fold increase,and China’s pull rate in 2018 is second only to the United States among all external economies;second,the value chain dependence of China’s pull rate to Latin America is relatively high on the whole,with an obvious upward trend,always remaining above 80%after 2000;third,China’s final demand is the decisive factor for the change of China’s pull effect on Latin American economic growth,and China’s economic growth will effectively drive Latin America’s economic growth through the in-ternal circulation to the external circulation.

关 键 词：需求拉动效应 中拉经贸合作 全球价值链 新发展格局 拉美经济增长 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]