政府性融资担保对普惠金融发展的影响研究——基于CGE模型的实证检验  

Research on the Effect of Government Financing Guarantee on the Development of Inclusive Finance———Empirical Test Based on CGE Model

作　　者：吴健梅 王涛 吕静怡 Wu Jianmei;Wang Tao;Lv Jingyi

机构地区：[1]国家融资担保基金有限责任公司 [2]首都经济贸易大学财政税务学院 [3]天津财经大学财税与公共管理学院

出　　处：《财政科学》2024年第7期42-55,共14页Fiscal Science

摘　　要：本文构建了一个包含融资担保与普惠金融模块的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,从微观企业、中观产业、宏观经济三个层面阐述政府性融资担保对普惠金融发展的影响。研究发现,微观层面,政府性融资担保政策显著提升了中小企业的信用扩张程度;中观层面,对于从事农林牧渔业、制造业、建筑业、信息传输、软件和信息服务业等风险较高且回报周期较长行业的中小企业而言,政府性融资担保政策对其产出增长具有显著的促进效果;宏观层面,政府性融资担保政策在提振经济增长、控制通胀风险、拉动投资和创造就业方面呈现出均衡的有效性。因此,推动政府性融资担保可持续发展,强化其对普惠金融的促进作用尤为重要。在此基础上,本文根据现存问题提出相关对策建议,以期为我国政府性融资担保行业高质量发展提供借鉴。This paper constructs a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model including financing guarantee and inclusive finance module,and expounds the impact of government financing guarantee on inclusive finance from three aspects:micro-enterprise,meso-industry and macro-economy.The study found that at the micro level,the government's financing guarantee policy significantly increased the degree of credit expansion of SMEs;at the meso level,for SMEs engaged in high-risk and long-term return cycle industries such as agricul-ture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,manufacturing,construction,information transmission,software and information services,government financing policies have a significant effect on their output growth;at the macro level,the financing guarantee policy shows a balanced effectiveness in boosting economic growth,controlling in-flation risk,stimulating investment and creating employment.Therefore,it is particularly important to continue to promote the role of government financing guarantees in promoting the development of inclusive finance.Based on the existing problems,this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions in order to provide reference for the high-quality development of China's government financing guarantee industry.

关 键 词：政府性融资担保 普惠金融 可计算一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]