2013—2022年河北省张家口市手足口病流行趋势Joinpoint回归分析  

Joinpoint regression analysis of hand,foot,and mouth disease trends in Zhangjiakou City,Hebei Province from 2013 to 2022

作　　者：孙飞 韩晓莉[2] 苏通[2] 罗晓燕[2] 高文[2] 王天满[1] 刘琪琛[1] 闫东[3] 李进琴 SUN Fei;HAN Xiaoli;SU Tong;LUO Xiaoyan;GAO Wen;WANG Tianman;LIU Qichen;YAN Dong;LI Jinqin(Zhangjiakou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhangjiakou,Hebei 075000,China;Hebei Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050000,China;Hebei Plague Prevention and Control Institute,Zhangjiakou,Hebei 075000,China)

机构地区：[1]张家口市疾病预防控制中心,河北张家口075000 [2]河北省疾病预防控制中心,河北石家庄050000 [3]河北省鼠疫防治所,河北张家口075000

出　　处：《上海预防医学》2024年第9期858-861,867,共5页Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：张家口市科技局2021年市级科技计划自筹经费项目(2121040D)。

摘　　要：【目的】分析河北省张家口市2013—2022年手足口病流行特征,为手足口病防控及防治效果评价提供依据。【方法】收集张家口市2013—2022年手足口病数据,采用描述统计学和Joinpoint回归模型对疫情变化趋势进行分析。【结果】模型预测张家口市手足口病发病率呈下降趋势,2013—2022年年度变化百分比(APC)=-14.86%。发病率前5位的地区为桥东区(APC=-26.21%)、桥西区(APC=-18.29%)、宣化区(APC=-14.28%)、赤城县(APC=-18.68%),涿鹿县(2013—2016年APC=51.43%,2016—2022年APC=-14.27%),总体呈下降趋势。3个年龄组0岁组(2013—2016年APC=-42.82%,2016—2022年APC=16.54%)、7岁组(AAPC=9.60%)、9岁组(AAPC=12.76%)发病率出现上升趋势。张家口市手足口病全年发病,6—8月达到发病高峰,以7月为主。患者男女性别比为1.40∶1,差异无统计学意义(χ^(2)=5.932,P>0.05);5岁以下高发,1~4岁是主要发病人群;以散居儿童(6245人,57.65%)和托幼儿童(3653人,33.72%)为主。实验室共确诊504人,检出率4.65%(504/10832),其中CoxA16为193人(38.29%),EV71为75人,(14.88%),其他肠道病毒为236人(46.83%)。【结论】2013—2022年张家口市手足口病呈下降趋势,有明显的季节性、地区分布和职业分布。建议加强疫情监测工作,加强病原学检测,重点场所做好宣教工作。高发县区应研判数据,做好风险评估工作。[Objective]To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)in Zhangjiakou City,Hebei Province from 2013 to 2022,so as to provide a basis for HFMD prevention,control,and evaluation of intervention effectiveness.[Methods]HFMD data of Zhangjiakou City from 2013 to 2022 were collected.Descriptive statistics and the Joinpoint regression model were used to analyze the trend of the epidemic.[Results]The incidence of HFMD in Zhangjiakou was predicted to decrease with APC=−14.86%in 2013‒2022.The top five regions with the highest incidence showed varying trends:Qiaodong District(APC=−26.21%),Qiaoxi District(APC=−18.29%),Xuanhua District(APC=−14.28%),Chicheng District(APC=−18.68%),and Zhuolu County(APC=51.43%in 2013‒2016,APC=−14.27%in 2016‒2022),indicating a downward trend.Three age groups showed an upward trend in incidence:the 0-year-old group(APC=−42.82%in 2013‒2016,APC=16.54%in 2016‒2022),the 7-year-old group(AAPC=9.60%),and the 9-year-old group(AAPC=12.76%).HFMD cases occurred throughout the year,peaking from June to August,with July being the most significant month.The male-to-female ratio was 1.40∶1,with no statistical difference(χ^(2)=5.932,P>0.05).A high incidence was in children under 5 years old,with those aged 1‒4 years being the main affected group.In terms of occupation,scattered children(6245 cases,57.65%)and preschool children(3653 cases,33.72%)were the most affected.A total of 504 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported,with a detection rate of 4.65%(504/10832).The composition of confirmed cases included CoxA 16(193 cases,38.29%),EV71(75 cases,14.88%),and other enteroviruses(236 cases,46.83%).[Conclusion]From 2013 to 2022,HFMD in Zhangjiakou City showed a downward trend with clear seasonal,regional,and occupational distributions.It is suggested that epidemic monitoring should be strengthened,etiological detection should be enhanced,and education efforts in key areas should be improved.High-incidence counties should analyze data and conduct ris

关 键 词：手足口病 流行学 病原学 Joinpoint回归分析 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]