贵州乌江流域人口收缩的时空格局演变及影响因素  

Spatio-temporal Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of Population Shrinkage in Wujiang River Basin of Guizhou

作　　者：田俊 李旭东[1] 滕明塔 TIAN Jun;LI Xu-dong;TENG Ming-ta(College of Geography and Environmental Science,Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang Guizhou 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院,贵阳550025

出　　处：《西华师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第6期622-631,共10页Journal of China West Normal University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41261039);贵州省科技厅项目(黔科合J字[2009]2253)。

摘　　要：以贵州乌江流域为研究对象,基于2000、2010、2020年3期人口普查数据以及2005年和2015年常住人口数据,探析贵州乌江流域县域人口收缩的时空格局演变,并探究其成因。结果表明:(1)贵州乌江流域人口收缩现象较为明显,2000—2010年和2010—2020年人口收缩县域分布较广,占比均超过50%。(2)研究期内人口持续收缩是主要特征,集中于下游地区,但分布范围逐渐缩小,中游地区人口变动剧烈。(3)基于收缩程度,研究期内以人口中度收缩为主,不同时期人口收缩程度起伏较大,随时间推移人口收缩程度有减弱趋势。(4)随时间演化人口自然增长因素对人口收缩演变影响减弱,人均生产总值、非农就业水平等经济发展因素影响力逐渐增强。Taking Wujiang River Basin in Guizhou as the research object and the data of three censuses in 2000,2010 and 2020 as well as the data of resident population in 2005 and 2015 as the basis,this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal pattern evolution of population shrinkage and its causes in Wujiang River Basin of Guizhou.The results are as follows:(1)The phenomenon of population shrinkage in Wujiang River Basin of Guizhou is rather obvious,and the proportion of counties with population shrinkage during 2000—2010 and 2010—2020 has exceeded 50%;the counties with population shrinkage are widely distributed;(2)Based on the temporal evolution,continuous population shrinkage is the main feature,which is concentrated in the downstream areas;however,the distribution range is gradually narrowing and population changes in the middle reaches are dramatic;(3)In terms of shrinkage degree,the population shrinkage is mainly moderate;the degree of population shrinkage fluctuates greatly in different periods,and it presents a weakening trend with the passage of time;(4)With the evolution of time,the influence of natural population growth factors on population shrinkage is weakened whereas the influence of economic development factors such as per capita GDP and non-agricultural employment level is gradually enhanced.

关 键 词：人口收缩 时空格局演变 影响因素 西部山地流域 乌江流域 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]