基于AFSOM-AHP的近坝库岸边坡风险评估方法  

Risk Assessment of Reservoir Bank Slope near Dam Based on AFOSM-AHP

作　　者：邵天成 林潮宁 李同春[1] SHAO Tiancheng;LIN Chaoning;LI Tongchun(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210024

出　　处：《水力发电》2024年第11期27-33,共7页Water Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3005403);国家自然科学基金资助项目(52309151);水利部水库大坝安全重点实验室开放研究基金(YK323007);江苏省卓越博士后计划(2022ZB191);中国电建集团科技项目(DJ-ZDXM-2021-10)。

摘　　要：以某工程近坝库岸岩质边坡为例,采用改进的一阶二次矩法计算各风险因素的可靠指标,并运用层次分析法,对该近坝库岸边坡进行综合风险分析评估。结果显示,该边坡整体稳定计算模型的风险等级为1,局部为4,存在局部失稳的风险。将各风险因素的影响程度以各工况的风险概率表示,最终划分4个风险等级,得出的结果符合工程实际,证明了该方法的可行性。相比于其他等级划分方法,该方法更能体现该工程的稳定状况,对边坡的风险评估效率也更高,可为今后类似近坝库岸边坡的风险评估提供理论参考。Taking the rock slope near the dam bank of a project as an example,the reliability index of each risk factor is calculated by the Advanced First-Order Second Moment(AFSOM),and the comprehensive risk analysis and evaluation of the bank slope near the dam are carried out by the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).The results show that the risk level of the overall stability calculation model is 1,and the local risk is 4,which means that there is the risk of local instability.The influence degree of each risk factor is expressed by the risk probability of each working condition,and finally divided into four risk levels.The obtained results of risk levels are in line with the actual situation of the project,which proves the feasibility of the proposed method.Compared with other classification methods,this method can better reflect the stability of project,and also has higher risk assessment efficiency for the slope,which can provide a theoretical reference for the risk assessment of similar near-dam bank slopes in the future.

关 键 词：库岸边坡 风险评估 风险因素 一次二阶矩法 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TU457[建筑科学—岩土工程]