基于实测数据和灰度模型的船闸底板混凝土温度变化预测  

Prediction of lock floor concrete temperature change based on measured data and gray model

作　　者：孙阳[1] 苏雅莹 潘丽波 谈俊伟 刘蒙蒙 SUN Yang;SU Yaying;PAN Libo;TAN Junwei;LIU Mengmeng(College of Harbour,Coastal and Offshore Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,China;China State Construction Engineering Corporation,Qingdao 266001,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,南京210024 [2]中建筑港集团有限公司,青岛266001

出　　处：《水道港口》2024年第5期723-731,共9页Journal of Waterway and Harbor

基　　金：江苏省交通运输科技项目(2022Y13);沱浍河航道临涣船闸施工02标(船闸主体工程)监测项目(822034316)。

摘　　要：船闸底板冬季施工时环境温度较低,大体积混凝土内外温差较大,在底板冬季温升过程中,温差超限的问题突出,养护不当极易出现开裂,有效预测底板温升变化尤为重要。基于实测数据,利用灰色模型分别按不同监测频次、不同原始序列分时段对温度变化进行预测,并对该模型进行了修正,用修正模型分时段预测了底板浇筑后3 d内的温升变化。根据精度及残差对比,监测时隔2 h结合数值原始序列、监测间隔3~6 h结合3数值原始序列的两种灰色模型预测方法合理有效,修正后的模型可有效提高精度及延长预测时长,用于指导温控,降低大体积混凝土开裂风险,为保障船闸底板结构安全提供科学支撑。During the winter construction of the lock floor,the ambient temperature was low,leading to significant temperature differences between the interior and exterior of the mass concrete.Throughout the temperature rise process,the issue of exceeding permissible temperature differentials became prominent,and improper curing could easily result in cracking.Therefore,accurate prediction of temperature rise was critical.Based on measured data,a grey model was employed to predict temperature variations over time,accounting for different monitoring frequencies and original data sequences.The model was subsequently refined,and the revised version was utilized to forecast temperature rise within the first three days after the floor was cast.A comparison of accuracy and residual errors demonstrated that two grey model prediction approaches-one using a 2-hour monitoring interval with a single numerical sequence and another employing a 3-hour to 6-hour interval with three numerical sequences-were both reasonable and effective.Based on the modified model,prediction accuracy and forecasting duration is improved.The risk of cracking in mass concrete is reduced by the guidance of the preidiction,thus providing scientific support for ensuring the safety of the lock floor.

关 键 词：船闸底板 大体积混凝土 温度场变化预测 灰色模型 

分 类 号：U65[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] TV331[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]