创新驱动政策能否助力经济实现“绿色包容”目标?——基于国家创新型城市试点的准自然实验  

Can Innovation-driven Policies Help the Economy Achieve the Goal of“Green and Inclusive”?A Quasi Natural Experiment of China’s Innovation City Pilot

作　　者：刘成坤 张茗泓 刘泽平 汪乐 LIU Chengkun;ZHANG Minghong;LIU Zeping;WANG Le(School of Statistics and Data Science,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学统计与数据科学学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第5期40-53,共14页Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区项目“人口老龄化对制造业高质量发展的影响及对策研究”(72063009);国家自然科学基金地区项目“企业层面视角下自由贸易协定条款深度对出口高质量发展的影响:模型拓展与量化分析”(72363013);江西省博士后科研项目择优资助项目“制造业高质量发展水平的统计测度、空间差异及动态演变特征研究”(2021KY11)。

摘　　要：创新是引领我国高质量发展的首要动力,深入研究创新驱动战略对包容性绿色增长的影响,对于推动高质量发展和生态文明建设有重要意义。基于我国2009~2020年264个地级市面板数据,构建包容性绿色增长的指标,采用多期双重差分法和空间杜宾模型研究了创新型城市试点对包容性绿色增长的政策效应,并对城市区位进行了异质性讨论以及空间权重矩阵分解,得出如下结论:一是试点政策对试点城市和邻近城市的包容性绿色增长有显著促进作用,这一系列结论通过了稳健性检验,并且直接政策效应和间接政策效应均随着时间推移逐渐增强。二是试点政策对社会包容和绿色生态的直接效应和间接效应均显著为正,但是对经济增长的直接效应显著为正,间接效应显著为负。三是试点政策对包容性绿色增长及三大子维度的直接和间接效应具有显著的区位异质性特点。四是试点政策推动了邻近试点城市的经济增长、社会包容和绿色生态,推动了邻近非试点城市的社会包容和绿色生态,对邻近非试点城市的经济增长影响不显著。因此,在中国经济转型升级的关键时期,一方面,应进一步从产业转型和环境保护等方面推进创新型城市建设;另一方面,政府应加强地区间政策联动性,坚持因地制宜地进行政策试点,增强政策施行的灵活度和包容性。Innovation is the primary driving force leading to high-quality development in China.In-depth research on the impact of innovation-driven strategies on inclusive green growth is of great significance for promoting high-quality development and ecological civilization construction.Based on the panel data from 264 prefecture-level cities in China from 2009 to 2020,this study constructs indicators for inclusive green growth and uses a multi-period difference-in-differences method and a spatial Durbin model to investigate the policy effects of innovative city pilots on inclusive green growth.The study also discusses heterogeneity in urban location and decomposes the spatial weight matrix,leading to the following conclusions:The pilot policy significantly promotes inclusive green growth in both pilot cities and neighboring cities.This series of conclusions has passed a series of robustness tests,and both the direct and indirect policy effects have gradually strengthened over time.The direct and indirect effects of the pilot policy on social inclusion and green ecology are significantly positive.However,while the direct effect on economic growth is significantly positive,the indirect effect is significantly negative.The direct and indirect effects of the pilot policy on inclusive green growth and its three sub-dimensions exhibit significant heterogeneity based on location.The pilot policy promotes economic growth,social inclusion,and green ecology in neighboring pilot cities and promotes social inclusion and green ecology in neighboring non-pilot cities,but its impact on economic growth in neighboring non-pilot cities is not significant.Therefore,during the critical period of China’s economic transformation and upgrading,it is essential to further promote the construction of innovative cities from the perspective of industrial transformation and environmental protection.Additionally,the government should enhance policy coordination between regions,adhere to location-specific policy pilots,and increase the flexibility

关 键 词：创新型城市试点 包容性绿色增长 多期双重差分法 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]