基于有序加权平均算子和后悔理论的城市洪涝灾害韧性评价  

Evaluation of Urban Flood Disaster Resilience Based on Ordered Weighted Average Operator and Regret Theory

作　　者：李亚敏[1] 张楠[2] LI Yamin;ZHANG Nan(Department of Civil Engineering,Henan Technical College of Construction,Zhengzhou 450007,China;Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]河南建筑职业技术学院土木工程系,河南郑州450007 [2]黄河水利科学研究院,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《人民黄河》2024年第11期56-62,共7页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0403505)。

摘　　要：针对城市洪涝灾害韧性评价过程主观性强、未考虑决策者有限理性和后悔规避的心理行为导致评价结果失真的难题,提出基于有序加权平均算子和后悔理论的城市洪涝灾害韧性评价方法。首先,结合韧性城市概念,从抵抗能力、预警能力、适应能力、恢复能力4个维度构建指标体系,利用有序加权平均算子将专家极端决策值分布到权重较低位置,通过组合权重的形式求得指标权重,弱化主观偏好极端评价值对权重的影响;然后,考虑专家决策时后悔心理行为特征,构建效用值矩阵、后悔-欣喜值矩阵和感知效用矩阵,得出城市洪涝灾害韧性评价值;最后,将其运用在河南省洪涝灾害韧性评价中,并将计算结果与其他评价方法得出的结果对比分析。结果表明:4种方法评价结果基本一致,均认为河南省洪涝灾害韧性等级为Ⅲ级,提出的方法评价结果精度更高、更贴近实际情况。此外,各地级市韧性等级差异较大,分布不均,整体呈现西南部城市韧性等级高于东北部城市的特征。In view of the issue that the evaluation process of urban flood disaster resilience was highly subjective and did not take into account the decision-makers’bounded rationality and regret avoidance psychological behavior,resulting in distortion of evaluation results,an urban flood disaster resilience evaluation method based on the ordered weighted average operator and regret theory was proposed.Firstly,based on the concept of resilient city,an index system was built from the following four dimensions including resistance ability,early warning ability,adaptive ability and resilience ability.On this basis,the order weighted average operator was used to assign the expert extreme decision value to the position with lower weight,and the index weight was obtained by the form of combined weight to weaken the influence of subjective preference extreme evaluation value on weight.Then,considering the psychological and behavioral characteristics of regret during expert deci-sion-making,utility value matrix,regret-joy value matrix and perceived utility matrix was built to obtain the urban flood disaster resilience e-valuation value.Finally,empirical analysis and verification were carried out based on the flood disaster resilience evaluation of Henan Prov-ince,and the calculated results were compared with the results obtained by other evaluation methods to verify the effectiveness of the risk as-sessment method proposed in this paper.The results show that the evaluation results of the four methods are basically consistent,and all of them consider the flood disaster toughness level of Henan Province isⅢ.However,the evaluation results of the method proposed in this pa-per are more accurate and closer to the actual situation.In addition,the results show that the toughness levels of prefecture-level cities are different and unevenly distributed,showing that the toughness levels of southwestern cities are better than those of northeastern cities on the whole.

关 键 词：城市洪涝灾害 韧性评价 有序加权平均算子 后悔理论 河南省 

分 类 号：TU998.4[建筑科学—市政工程]