基于介质模型Morris法和Sobol法的农业常用药剂环境敏感性分析  

Environmental Sensitivity Analysis of Commonly Used Agricultural Pesticides Based on Medium Models Morris Method and Sobol Method

作　　者：莫俊超 郭丹丹 王思怿 MO Junchao;GUO Dandan;WANG Siyi(Shanghai Institute of Chemical Industry Testing Co.,Ltd./Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Chemical Administration for Public Safety,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]上海化工院检测有限公司/上海化学品公共安全工程技术研究中心,上海200062

出　　处：《肥料与健康》2024年第5期64-74,共11页Fertilizer & Health

基　　金：2022年上海市农委农业科技创新项目(2022-02-08-00-12-F01107)。

摘　　要：四级多介质模型的敏感性分析是生态毒理学的重要研究方法之一。为了系统性研究该分析方法,选用Morris法和Sobol法对两种农业常用药剂(抗生素磺胺甲嘧啶和四环素)进行研究,并对10种影响参数的敏感性进行了分析。结果表明:不同物质的参数敏感性有差异;Morris法可得到定性结果,Sobol法可得到定量结果,但两者参数排序结果相近;Morris法对计算资源需求更少,计算耗时短,结果输出快,而Sobol法需优化计算次数,计算过程相对复杂。目前多数的研究采用局部敏感性分析方法,但可能会造成结果的不准确性。在无法判断模型是否为线性时,应优先使用全局敏感性分析方法。Sensitivity analysis of the four level multimedia model is one of the important research methods in ecotoxicology.In order to systematically study this analysis method,Morris method and Sobol method are used to study two commonly used agricultural pesticides(antibiotics sulfamethoxazole and tetracycline),and the sensitivity of 10 influencing parameters is analyzed.The results indicate that there are differences in the sensitivity of parameters for different substances.The Morris method can obtain qualitative results,while the Sobol method can obtain quantitative results,but the parameter ranking results of the two methods are similar.The Morris method requires less computing resources,has shorter computation time,and produces faster results.The Sobol method requires optimization of the number of calculations,and the calculation process is relatively complex.Currently,most studies use local sensitivity analysis methods,but may result in inaccurate results.When it is impossible to determine whether the model is linear,global sensitivity analysis methods should be prioritized.

关 键 词：敏感性 多介质模型 Sobol法 Morris法 

分 类 号：X839.2[环境科学与工程—环境工程]